Clipper to bring snowy travel, frigid Thanksgiving

We know Thanksgiving is more winter than fall in Minnesota. This year leaves no doubt of that reality.

An Alberta clipper sails through southwest Minnesota Wednesday, bringing a dose of snow to Minnesota. Snow busts out in western Minnesota this evening, and arrives in the metro and Duluth in earnest early tomorrow morning.

The snow should arrive in the metro before rush hour Wednesday morning. It will be a consideration if you are planning pre-Thanksgiving travel in most of Minnesota tomorrow.

Here's a look at the surface low sliding over Sioux Falls, South Dakota, overnight, with snow spreading across much of Minnesota by midnight.

The heaviest snow favors southwest Minnesota where a good 2 to 4 inches will fall along and southwest of the Minnesota River. The systems looks to lay down 1 to 2 inches from the Twin Cities to Eau Claire, Wisconsin, and from St. Cloud to Duluth.

Turning on the lake-effect?

Northeast to north winds at the surface may tap into additional moisture from lake Superior, and that may produce some lake-enhanced snowfall totals from the North Shore through Duluth into northern Wisconsin.

Coldest Thanksgiving in 29 years?

We take the polar plunge again behind the clipper for Thanksgiving Day. A sunny Thanksgiving Day with highs in the teens looks likely for the metro. If the mercury makes 19 degrees it will be the coldest Thanksgiving Day  in 25 years since 1989. If we stall at 18 or colder, the coldest in 29 years since 1985.

Yes, the last time it was this cold on Thanksgiving in Minnesota, Sussman Lawrence was playing at Duffs and Flock of Seagulls hair was all the rage. But I digress.

We rebound a bit for Black Friday into early Saturday before another cold front delivers a chilly Sunday. Here's a detailed breakdown of the now rapidly approaching holiday weekend ahead.

Pacific December breezes?

Next week is December. How did that happen exactly?

Hints of an El Niño laced jet stream are starting to show signs of showing up on the maps. During the past four weeks healthy signs of a developing El Niño event have taken hold in the tropical Pacific.

Signs of last winter's deep Hudson Bay low, or polar vortex pattern, are absent. A flatter, more west-to-east "zonal" flow pattern typical of El Niño winters shows signs of life next week as we enter December and meteorological winter.

El Niño favors milder than average winter in Minnesota. I'm still seeing a lot of "push-pull" pattern over the next few weeks — cold shots interrupted by milder days and micro-thaws. But early indications hint the first 10 days of December may bring a gaggle of highs at or above the thawing point.

I am starting to feel slightly better about my forecast for an at least average winter and about the possibility of an upside surprise and a milder than average temperature trend for December through February.

Stay tuned.