Warming trend: Slow now, instant spring next week?

We've come a long way since black ice and sub zero temps Monday morning.

• -3 degrees low temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Monday morning

• 34 degrees forecast high temperature Friday afternoon

• 2 inches snow depth at MSP Airport

Our well advertised warming trend kicks in over the next 48 hours. Many locations in southern Minnesota may actually crack the thawing point by Friday afternoon. Bank thermometers may actually flash temps above 32 degrees for the first time in nearly a week.

Southerly winds blow across Minnesota Thursday. A few snow flurries may fly as the warmer air advances northward over the departing cold dome. Mild and quiet in the Midwest? Rain on the West Coast? Storms in the South and along the Gulf Coast?

Likely the first fingerprints of an El Niño-driven December weather pattern.

Temperatures trend gradually higher the next few days. An Alberta Clipper sails through Sunday into Monday with a chance for a little slush as temps hover near freezing. No hints of Polar Vortex-driven arctic fronts on the maps anytime soon.

Bigger warm up next week

The jet stream buckles northward in a big way by the middle of next week over the central United States. Here's the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model upper air chart, pumping up a huge -- and unseasonably warm --  high pressure ridge over the central of the country.

Here's a look at the Global Forecast System-generated surface map for Friday Dec. 12. The dashed red lines indicate warmer air getting shoved bodily north into the Upper Midwest on southerly winds, as more (heavy) rain soaks California.

Instant spring late next week?

What a difference a year can make.

The models continue to crank out some eye opening numbers for late next week. Highs in the 40s seem to be a lock, and if we lose enough snow cover and get a sunny day with a good southwest breeze as some models are advertising late next week, we could easily see some near-record temperatures of more than 50 degrees in southern Minnesota by next weekend.

A solid week with nights above 32 degrees? Occasional December rain showers? That would pretty much decimate of any remaining snow cover in the southern half of Minnesota.

Warmth lingering into January?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System is relatively new, and still unproven. Still it has shown some successes in forecasting on longer time frames. The latest trends looking ahead into January seem to favor a continued mild pattern for the United States overall.

I have no doubt we'll see occasional arctic outbreaks this winter. But as the early days of December go by the evidence is mounting that El Niño is aggressively developing in the tropical Pacific, and that the rapid warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean may already be affecting jet stream pattern around the globe. That skews the odds toward a milder winter than last year for the United States and Minnesota -- maybe much milder.

As we say in the weather biz, stay tuned.