Growing odds for mild winter of 2014-15?

Minnesota weather is a lot like Forrest Gump's box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get.

Even as a cold November seemed to steel Minnesotans for another early and cold winter, changes in ocean-atmosphere links in the tropical Pacific were underway that may ultimately produce just the opposite.

I'm already on record as saying in early November that this winter will not be a repeat of last winter. This line of thinking from my winter outlook post a month ago stands.

My gut also tells me we won't have a repeat of the coldest winter in 35 years. My gut also tells me that if there is a surprise, this winter may end up milder than many have forecast.

Now it appears increasingly likely that the "surprise" of a milder winter for Minnesota may be about to unfold.

Warm December?

The first week of December is running colder than average (-4.4F at MSP) in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. The cool November hangover is about to ease, as increasingly mild pacific breezes kick in by Thursday. Temperatures Friday soar 10 to 18 degrees warmer than average across the central United States and Canada. Friday evening's Global Forecast System-based temperature anomalies below from Climate Reanalyzer.

This looks like a solid four-day thaw for most of Minnesota. Highs in the 40s are a lock. If we thread the weather needle just right with a good breeze to keep the fog at bay, we have a real shot at 50 degrees this weekend. It's looking like we may spend a solid 72 hours above freezing this weekend, even at night.

Bye bye snow cover

With tempeartures in the 40s to near 50, most of the snow cover across the southern half of Minnesota should be history by Saturday afternoon.

Once the snow goes, bare ground can add 5 to 10 degrees to daily highs and overnight low temperatures, even as a cooler air mass moves in next week. The latest GFS 16-day trends suggest temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average next week in the lead up to Christmas.

No Arctic outbreaks in sight as of now.

Hints of a milder winter overall?

The meteorological tea leaves seem to be favoring a milder than average winter overall. For now I'll stick with my forecast of close to average temperatures overall this winter for Minnesota. But there are some emerging trends that support a shift toward a midler than average winter.

Most of the so-called climate models continue the coming December warmth into January. NOAA's Climate Forecast System model paints a blob of winter warmth with temperatures well above average for January, from the Upper Midwest westward through the High Plains.

The longer range runs continue the trend, cranking out warmer than average temperatures over much of North America through meteorological winter.

It's still early, but signs of a potentially milder than average winter are growing for Minnesota.