2014: Warmest globally, Minnesota’s coldest in 18 years

I've been talking with MPR Climate Cast contributor University of St. Thomas Professor John Abraham this week about what it will take for 2014 to "officially" be declared the warmest year on record globally. John is at the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco this week.

John and I traded data including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest numbers showing the 7th warmest November on record globally, and that 2014 is still on pace to be the warmest year on record. Based on multiple data sets and model forecasts for the rest of December, John is ready to make the call that 2014 will indeed finish as the warmest year on record globally.

Here's a snippet from John's piece today in the Guardian.

For those of us fixated on whether 2014 will be the hottest year on record, the results are in. At least, we know enough that we can make the call. According the global data from NOAA, 2014 will be the hottest year ever recorded. 

I can make this pronouncement even before the end of the year because each month, I collect daily global average temperatures. So far, December is running about 0.5°C above the average. The climate and weather models predict that the next week will be about 0.75°C above average. This means, December will come in around 0.6°C above average. Are these daily values accurate? Well the last two months they have been within 0.05°C of the final official results.

What does this all mean? Well, when I combine December with the year-to-date as officially reported, I predict the annual temperature anomaly will be 0.674°C. This beats the prior record by 0.024°C. That is a big margin in terms of global temperatures.

For those of us who are not fixated on whether any individual year is a record but are more concerned with trends, this year is still important. Particularly because according to those who deny the basic physics and our understanding of climate change, this year wasn’t supposed to be particularly warm.

Here are some highlights from NOAA's November global analysis.

Global Highlights

• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2014 tied with 2008 as seventh highest in the 135-year period of record, at 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F).

• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the year-to-date (January–November) was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.2°F), the warmest such period on record.

NOAA points out that if December makes the top 10 warmest Decembers on record, 2014 will indeed go down as the warmest year on record.

Minnesota 2014: Coldest year in 18 years

I've been talking ad nauseam for months now about the irony that in the warmest year on record globally, Minnesota is the coolest place on earth relative to average this year.

Now comes word from Pete Boulay at the Minnesota Climate Working Group that 2014 will be the coldest year in Minnesota since 1996. Here's a preview of what will likely be one of the top Minnesota weather stories of 2014 when released by the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

2014 Will be the Coldest Year Since 1996

Muggy December days notwithstanding, 2014 is still poised to be the coolest year in Minnesota since 1996.

Statewide Averages for Minnesota

Month departure rank (120 years 1895-2014)

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January -7.5 33rd coldest

February -11.5 11th coldest

March -8.2 21st coldest

April -4.6 20th coldest

May -0.8 57th warmest

June 0.6 39th warmest

July -2.3 23rd coldest

August 0.3 42nd warmest

September 0.9 34th warmest

October 1.4 45th warmest

November -7.3 14th coldest

December ??? ????

An unusually amplified jet stream dip over the Great Lakes has been persistent this year, dealing Minnesota a steady diet of cold fronts. It figures that in the warmest year on record globally, Minnesota would find a way to buck the global trend.

A big way.