Winter storm north, coldest week of winter ahead?

Buckle up weather fans, our quiet start to 2015 is about to end with a wintry smack.

The appetizer is a major winter storm pounding far northern Minnesota this weekend with 6 to 12 inches of heavy wind-driven snow. The main course surges south Saturday night, as an arctic front barrels south. The season's coldest air mass is on the way, with dangerous wind chills and the coldest temperatures of the season.

Here are a few headlines as we move through the weekend:

• Winter storm warnings for far northern Minnesota (Roseau, Bemidji, International Falls to Ely)

• Major arctic outbreak statewide by Sunday with temperatures falling to sub-zero levels

• Coldest morning so far this winter Monday (-10 to -15 metro, -25 to -30 northern Minnesota)

• Dangerous wind chills of -25 to -50 across Minnesota Sunday night and Monday morning

The Twin Cities gets off lucky with a shot of lighter snow Saturday night, but dangerous cold arrives by Sunday.

Northland winter storm rages

These are the days I am reminded that Minnesota is a long state from north to south. While the Twin Cities enjoys a fine winter Saturday, a major winter storm rages in far northern Minnesota this weekend.

Here's a good overview of the snow up north and coming cold wave from the Duluth National Weather Service weather briefing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9hQnJ0SHr4&feature=youtu.be

This is our winter weathermaker this weekend. Wave #1 of a double-barreled low system drops heavy snow up north. The second wave flares to the south along the surging arctic front Saturday night. We call that cyclogenesis, and the second wave intensifies to drop heavier snows in Wisconsin as the system gets it's act together just east of the Twin Cities.

Here's the surface map sequence. Watch the isobars tighten as howling north winds increase behind the cold front as the inbound high pressure cell builds south.

Yes, we are about to be reminded that there is nothing between Minnesota and the Arctic Circle other than a thin barbed wire fence.

"That's not weather, that's an emergency condition." -Lewis Black on Minnesota's extreme winter weather

Coldest so far

I'm hoping I don't have to say this too many more times this winter. The incoming air mass will be the coldest so far this winter season.

Temperatures plunge to -25 to -30 in northern Minnesota by Monday morning. Thermometers in the Twin Cities bottom out between -10 and -15 Monday morning.

The bigger story may be the coldest wind chill reading so far this season. Expect widespread wind chill warnings by Sunday night. Yes, your skin will freeze in minutes at this barbaric level of Siberian cold.

I anticipate widespread school delays, and maybe some cancellations Monday across Minnesota. The cold wave persists through most of next week. It's still too early in the winter season to be sure...but next week has a decent chance to be the coldest week of the winter overall in Minnesota with four to six sub-zero nights in the Twin Cities.

Monday night snow chances

There appears to be a growing chance of a potentially plowable snowfall for southern Minnesota and possibly the metro Monday night. Here's the culprit: an Alberta Clipper riding southeast on the next advancing arctic air dome.

Here's the overall breakdown on snowfall the next few days for the metro: We pick up an inch or two with the arctic front Saturday night. Monday night's clipper offers the chance for more plowable snow, especially southwest of the metro toward the Minnesota River Valley.

Here's Iowa State's snowfall meteogram:

Deep cold wave

The second surge of arctic air Tuesday may be even colder than Sunday's blast. This one will penetrate deeper south into Dixie, and could push sub-zero temps well south of Chicago and Des Moines. You may hear shades of the Polar Vortex leading national newscasts next week.

Longer range outlook: Moderating temperatures?

I still think this winter's arctic cold swipes will not be as persistent as last winter. The overall pattern seems to favor a moderating trend starting around January 10. Temperatures look much closer to -- or even above -- average by mid-month.

If we pick up the expected few inches of additional snowfall in the next week, and temperatures moderate into the upper 20s and low 30s, we may enjoy some classic outdoor winter recreation opportunities later this month.

Stay tuned.