Coldest week of winter? Clipper grazes metro tonight

Welcome to the coldest day of winter so far in Minnesota. Again.

Hopefully I can avoid that mostly unwelcome phrase too many more times this season. I know I will have to say it again Wednesday, which looks like the coldest day this week and possibly of the winter season overall.

Weather fingers crossed.

• -11 degrees lowest temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport this morning

• -28 degrees in International Falls, Minn., and Orr, Minn.

• -50 degrees wind chill at the Grand Marais, Minn., airport this morning

• Coldest day of winter so far

We have (conveniently) short weather memories in Minnesota. Maybe it's an evolved weather defense mechanism. Yes, it's cold out there. But it was much colder just one year ago tomorrow when temps bottomed out at -23 degrees MSP Airport, the coldest day of last winter.

Small comfort, I know. January in Minnesota.

Tundra Tracker

• 6 sub-zero days so far this winter season at MSP Airport

• 8 days average number of sub-zero days to date in winter

• 18 days of sub-zero pain so far by last winter at this time

• 23 days average number of days at or below zero in winter at MSP

• 53 days at or below zero last winter

Unnecessarily arctic

We're running out of blue on the weather maps this week. The big story is the wind chill. This is what it feels like today across the Upper Midwest as sub-zero chills plunge all the way south to Kansas City.

Clipper aims for southwest Minnesota tonight

Alberta clippers love to ride the edge of emerging arctic air domes in winter. One favored track? Through southwest Minnesota into Iowa.

Winter storm warnings are up for 4 to 8 inch snowfall totals from Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and southwest Minnesota, right through central Iowa to the southwest suburbs of Chicago. NOAA's internal North American Mesoscale Forecast System model lays down the snowy swath.

The southern track for this storm means the Twin Cities gets off easy -- a glancing blow of light snow. Still, it may be enough to make for some slick spots this evening, specifically in the southwest metro where some 1 to 2 inch totals may accumulate. Most of the metro will see just a coating to around 1 inch between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m. tonight.

Coldest week of winter?

It's still early in the cold season, but I'd put the chances at 50/50 that this ends up being the coldest week of winter. We string together six consecutive sub-zero nights, and temps won't see zero across most of Minnesota Wednesday.

Temps recover into positive number territory as the cold eases this weekend.

Longer range: moderation ahead

My dad was a WW ll era veteran, a volunteer pilot who flew search and rescue for the Civil Air Patrol here in Minnesota, and a total weather geek. One of his favorite sayings?

"All things in moderation Paul."

That's good advice in life, and in winter.

Some of the recent runs from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System suggest milder days by late next week as winds shift of the Pacific again by next week. Some suggest the cold hangs on. The extended range forecast appears to be the biggest question mark right now. But then again, what's new?

Here's the GFS longer range temp outlook from  IPS Meteostar.

Stay warm, Minnesota!