Minnesota weather in 2015: 5 things to watch

The Crazy Weather Year of 2014 almost got to be a cliché in Minnesota.

The polar vortex brought the coldest winter in 35 years. We sandbagged and bailed out our basements as the June monsoon raged.

We pulled sailors and boats off the rocks as gravity wave driven storms pounded the Twin Cities. We shivered through the coldest mid-July in a century. We glared at white skies in July as thick smoke from massive Canadian forest fires robbed us of precious summer sunshine. We basked in record 50 degree December warmth. It was the coldest year in 18 years in Minnesota, as the planet saw the warmest year on record globally.

Yes, 2014 was like a weather Twilight Zone in Minnesota. Like a cold turbulent roller coaster on the weather midway, in a record-warm world.

As we look ahead to 2015 several questions arise when it comes to Minnesota's weather.

Here's a look at five weather variables that may make weather headlines in 2015.

1.) Winter 2015: Steady as she goes or furious finish? This week (Jan. 15) marks halftime for the winter of 2014-15. The first half of winter in Minnesota has featured a mild December, a cold January, so far, and a budding snow drought. Add it all up and my early November prediction of "wildly average" temperatures this winter is on track overall. Snowfall is running on the light side of average so far.

• +4.6 degrees: December temperatures vs. average at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

• -8.7 degrees: January temperatures so far at MSP Airport

• 18.7 inches: Season snowfall so far at MSP Airport

• -7.5 inches Season snowfall vs. average to date

Our January thaw kicks into high gear this weekend. The next two weeks favor warmer than average temperatures in Minnesota and a good chunk of the eastern U.S.

There are early signs of another potential sub-zero arctic swipe in the closing days of January.

It appears January is likely to end up relatively close to average overall for temperatures. That would put the first two-thirds of winter solidly in the milder than average camp overall.

That leaves February (and to some degree March) as the only opportunity to deliver a colder than average month this winter.

My hunch? Another shot or two of sub-zero air in late January and February, but milder than average overall this winter. It is increasingly likely we will avoid a repeat of the extended polar vortex scenario of last winter. No, this will not be a repeat of the coldest winter in 35 years.

My gut also tells me we'll probably end up with average to below average snowfall this winter. The 30-year average winter snowfall for the Twin Cities is 54.4 inches and at this point I am leaning at landing somewhere in the 40s.

2.) Spring 2015: Monsoon, drought or something in between? As we enter 2015 one thing is clear. It's dry under the frozen tundra. A full 80 percent of Minnesota soils were "abnormally dry" going into the freeze-up, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The land of "All or Nothing"

The fact that most of Minnesota is (again) on the verge of drought after the wettest spring in history is remarkable. It's a repeating "all-or nothing" pattern we've seen in recent years. Torrential spring and early summer monsoon rains bring floods. Then in mid-summer, the faucet shuts down and "flash drought" envelops Minnesota's lawns and fields.

Snow cover is running well below seasonal averages in much of Minnesota. There is barely a trace in much of west-central Minnesota this week.

Snow melt is locked out of frozen soils through the spring thaw. Additional snow this winter won't help soil moisture much, but it will help to recharge lakes and rivers through runoff.

We've been bailed out from fall drought the past several years by hyperactive spring rains. One of these years we are bound to have a dry spring. The big question is, will that happen in 2015?

My hunch? We're going into the spring thaw with dry soils again, and I think we may hear a lot more drought talk than in past years as we head into spring and early summer 2015.

3.) Hotter summer of 2015? The summer of 2014 was pleasant to be sure. The mercury staggered to the 90 degree mark only two days last summer. The average is 13 days at or above 90 degrees each summer.

My hunch? Next summer will feature far more heat and 90 degree days than 2014. Minnesota is overdue for "heat wave" headlines in 2015.

4.) Coolest place on earth no more? Minnesota has been the coolest place on earth relative to average for the past two years.

A stuck jet stream has delivered a persistent northwest flow, and cool temperatures during some of the warmest years on record globally. Yes, all weather is local. Climate change is global.

Eventually the law of weather averages is going to even out. The random lottery of jet stream waves will put Minnesota in a warm spot one of these years.

My hunch is that 2015 will be significantly warmer relative to average then the past two years in Minnesota. Might be a good idea to get that air conditioner checked early this year.

5.) Year of the (urban) tornado? Minnesota got off lucky again with tornadoes in 2014. Tornado numbers are highly variable each year, but there has been an upward trend in recent decades in Minnesota.

Since thunderstorms are more discrete localized events, it's hard to pinpoint and predict tornado numbers in advance. The thing that keeps me and other Twin Cities meteorologists up at night is that the metro is probably overdue for a significant tornado somewhere in the Twin Cities urban core.

My hunch? We may be at higher risk for a significant tornado or outbreak in the Twin Cities in 2015. It only takes one bad day with rotating super cells to ruin your summer. Here's hoping we can dodge the tornado bullet once again this year.

There's plenty to watch for in Minnesota skies in 2015.