Snow arrives, heavy totals south of metro

Update 9:15 pm

Steady snow piling up with some impressive totals in the south metro. Some updated totals.

• Burnsville [Dakota Co, MN] BROADCAST MEDIA reports SNOW of 5.80 INCH at 22 Mar, 8:45 PM CDT --

• 2 W Prior Lake [Scott Co, MN] NWS EMPLOYEE reports SNOW of 7.00 INCH at 22 Mar, 8:45 PM CDT --

• Carver [Carver Co, MN] NWS EMPLOYEE reports SNOW of 7.50 INCH at 22 Mar, 8:15 PM CDT -- RECEIVED IN LESS THAN 4 HOURS, AND STILL SNOWING HEAVILY.

Get the latest metro snowfall totals here as they roll in.

Expect some residual snowy/icy roads around parts of the metro Monday morning, especially in the southern metro.

Update 7:15 pm

Snow pretty much unfolding as expected so far. Heaviest bands favoring areas south & west of metro, with steadier snow in Twin Cities this evening. No major forecast changes to what I posted below this afternoon. Likely zone for 3" to 6"+ totals still favor areas just south of MSP.

I measured 1.8" in Victoria at the Weather Lab just after 7 pm this evening.

Here are some more early evening snowfall totals from the Twin Cities NWS.

• SSE Willmar [Kandiyohi Co, MN] TRAINED SPOTTER reports SNOW of 2.50 INCH at 22 Mar, 7:00 PM CDT

• 1 WSW Victoria [Carver Co, MN] NWS EMPLOYEE reports SNOW of 1.60 INCH at 22 Mar, 6:55 PM CDT --

• 2 W Prior Lake [Scott Co, MN] NWS EMPLOYEE reports SNOW of 2.70 INCH at 22 Mar, 6:30 PM CDT --

• Chanhassen [Carver Co, MN] OFFICIAL NWS OBS reports SNOW of 1.70 INCH at 22 Mar, 7:00 PM CDT --

Roads are getting snow covered in the west metro. Here's the MNDOT traffic cam shot from Victoria on Highway 5.

I-35 near Owatonna is snow covered and very slick. Several accidents have been reported.

Expect snow of varying intensity tapering off from west to east around midnight.

-Original post 1:47pm-

Our wanna be late March snow event is still getting it's act together.

A fairly compact low pressure system sparks a relatively narrow band of heavier snow through tonight. The system shows signs of a slight southward jog, which supports my thinking from last night that the heaviest snow bands will eventually set up south and west of the Twin Cities metro.

Here are some updated headlines on tonight's inbound system.

• I still think heaviest snow bands with this system will be south and west of the metro.

• Expect snow to move into metro after 5 pm from west to east.

• Precip may be mixed with rain and or sleet at times.

• Snow of varying intensity through about midnight tonight.

• Latest model trends show a jog south with this system, that should keep metro snow totals in check.

• Latest thinking on totals is 3” to 6” in the narrow heaviest snow band along MN River including Mankato, Owatonna, and Northfield to near Rochester.

• Metro snowfall generally 1” to 3” range by late tonight.

• This system still has some "bust potential."

• Winter weather advisories remain in effect for the metro and much of south-central Minnesota.

I'm still not convinced the metro will be the bull's eye for the heaviest snow zone with this one. It's going to be close, but I think the heaviest snow bands will set up southwest of the Twin Cities. I am leaning toward a general metro range of 1" to 3" with the potential for a few higher totals. The morning (12z) GFS run dropped metro snowfall to around 2". The NAM model still cranks out higher totals close to 5".

I'm still not ready to buy into the notion of 3" to 6" snow totals for the metro. A wedge of dry air near the surface with dew points in the teens need to be overcome before snow cranks up.

Gaylord, Glencoe, Mankato, Owatonna, Waseca to north of Rochester look more favored for heavier snowfall rates and the potential for 3" to 6" snowfall totals tonight. Snowfall totals will drop off rapidly as you move northeast from the metro.

Bottom line: Expect a shot of snow late afternoon and tonight. The heaviest bands still look to be south and west of the Twin Cities. More updates as the system unfolds through tonight.