Arctic Sea ice on pace for new record low

It was not a good winter for ice in the Arctic. In fact, if current trends continue ice coverage in the Arctic is on pace to hit new record lows this year with ice coverage currently tracking lower than the record minimum year of 2012.

The Guardian elaborates on new lows in Arctic Sea ice cover.

There was less ice in the Arctic this winter than in any other winter during the satellite era, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists said on Tuesday.

The announcement was consistent with previous predictions that the Arctic would have entirely ice-free summers by 2040, they said in a briefing to the media on the state of climate trends in the north pole.

The consequences of such a small quantity of Arctic ice are major and far-reaching.

After undergoing a period of colder temperatures and slower ice retreat between 2007 and 2012, the Arctic is returning to a warm period with the overall trend over the decades continuing to show temperatures getting hotter and ice melting faster.

This year, full ice coverage – the point at which the ice reaches its peak and then starts melting – was reached on 25 February, more than two weeks before the expected date of mid-March, said Jeff Key at NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service’s center for satellite applications and research. This means ice started to melt earlier and faster than in previous years.

Ed Farley, a scientist with NOAA’s Alaska fisheries science center, said that studies over the last 15 years showed that ice melting faster year-on-year led to a drastic loss in the fat contained in zooplankton – a fish food crucial for the entire area’s ecosystem.

Widespread ramifications

The Arctic is not Vegas. What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. A growing body of science points to jet stream and weather changes in the Northern Hemisphere as a result of changing ice conditions in the Arctic.

Here's a great primer on how changes in the Arctic can have worldwide effects from Weather Underground.

Continued loss of Arctic sea ice may dramatically alter global weather and precipitation patterns in the decades to come. The jet stream will probably move further north in response to warmer temperatures over the pole, which will bring more precipitation to the Arctic. More frequent and intense droughts over the U.S. and other regions of the mid-latitudes may result from this shift in the jet stream.

Changes to the course of the jet stream affect weather patterns for the entire planet, and we can expect impacts on the strength of the monsoons and recurvature likelihood of hurricanes. During 1979 to 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice also had a 10-20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and the North Pole.

This resulted in reduced winter precipitation over all of the U.S., Alaska, and Northern Europe. In contrast, increased precipitation fell over Spain, Italy, and Japan during these winters. Although intense La Niña or El Niño events can have a much stronger influence on wintertime weather patterns, reduced summertime Arctic sea ice should give most of the Northern Hemisphere a delayed start to winter during most years for the foreseeable future.