Frigid temperatures this weekend prompt cold weather advisories

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Special Updraft Alert: Flash flood event possible Thursday

Thursday has all the earmarks of a potentially damaging and life-threatening flash flood event for parts of southern Minnesota.

After a beautiful day today, the remnants of 

 are streaming northeast through the Rockies toward Minnesota. All indications support a potential flash flood event across southern Minnesota on Thursday.

The only question seems to be precisely where the heaviest rainfall bands will set up. Not going for the dramatic here, but multiple model runs have cranked out anywhere from 3- to 6-inch rainfall totals for southern Minnesota.

If we see that much rain, flash flood watches and warnings are likely somewhere in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa Thursday.

All residents of southern Minnesota should take time to review 

Remnants of Tropical Storm Blanca are streaming northeast today across the Rockies toward Minnesota. The tropically generated moisture plume is clearly visible over Colorado and Utah on the GOES infrared satellite loop.

earliest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula.

 The system produced rare, early June rain in Arizona and near-record dew point levels.

https://twitter.com/NWSTucson/status/608489775763476480

Moisture from Blanca will be sucked into developing low pressure tracking northeast toward the Upper Midwest Thursday. The likely result will be heavy rainfall totals across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.

The core of the heaviest rains could generate 1- to 3-inch rainfalls per hour, according to Wednesday morning's Twin Cities National Weather Service forecast discussion.

The core of uncertainty at this point centers around the eventual location of the heaviest rainfall band. Will it set up over the Twin Cities, or further south in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa?

The Twin Cities NWS elaborates in this morning's 

Here's a look at various solutions to the rainfall set up Thursday.

The Twin Cities NWS grids favor 1 inch to 3 inches from north to south across the metro, with heaviest totals of 3 inches or more in southern Minnesota.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest rainfall maps agree with the southern solution for the heaviest rains, with some totals of 4 inches or more in northern Iowa and topographically flood-prone southeast Minnesota.

Specific model solutions for the Twin Cities generate some incredible rainfall totals of 3 inches to 4 inches or more for the Twin Cities. If the southern solution wins, these numbers may fall dramatically later today in subsequent model runs.

The models giveth. The models taketh away.

We dry out Friday and Saturday. The longer-range forecast favors rainfall spaced every two to three days. In other words, typical June.

Have a plan for potentially heavy rains Thursday, especially in southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and Wisconsin communities, including La Crosse.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

The remnants of Hurricane Blanca are streaming northeast through the Rockies toward Minnesota. All indications support a potential flash flood event across southern Minnesota on Thursday.

Thursday flood potential: Models forecast 3-inch rains

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