Storm rolls in: Waves of rain and wind

Batten down the weather hatches, Minnesota.

Our seasonally unusual and well advertised storm system is here. Waves of rain are marching north through the Upper Midwest. Winds build today and tomorrow as an unusual fall-like storm winds up and races through Minnesota over the next 36 hours.

• Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Yesterday I commented on the unprecedented out-of-season character of this storm. The Twin Cities NWS has little luck finding any similar past system in the month of August. Here's more detail on the inbound system as we try and pinpoint the heaviest rainfall zone from the Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion from Tuesday morning.

THIS IS QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR MID AUGUST. DEEP DIGGING 500MB TROUGH WILL FACILITATE A SURFACE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 990 MB RANGE WHILE IT TRACKS FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO NORTHWEST WI. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST OF THIS TRACK WHERE TOTALS COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS AND LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IF CONVECTION CAN ANCHOR IN SPOTS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND WHERE DEEP OMEGA...MODEST INSTABILITY...AND A HIGHLY EFFICIENT AIRMASS ALL COINCIDE. THE MOST LIKELY SWATH FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS FROM ROUGHLY NEW ULM TO THE WESTERN TWIN CITIES SUBURBS...ST CLOUD...AND LAKE MILLE LACS/MORA. MAY POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS SWATH...BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF IT SHIFTS WEST OR EAST.

Point of professional art and a little inside baseball: Yes, this is how meteorologists talk to each other about storms. It's a sort of secret handshake/short speak that cuts to the heart of the forecast variable at work with any given storm system.

Here's a look at the latest rainfall projections from NOAA models. My gut? A widespread 1- to 3-inch rainfall zone, with some locally heavier totals.

A flash flood watch is up for southwest Minnesota through tonight. This map will likely change (and could include the metro) as the concentration of rain waves becomes more apparent today, so keep an eye out for that.

The latest model tracks have shifted the storm slightly east. That keeps the biggest severe risk south of the metro. Here's the bigger picture on severe risk, rainfall and wind from the Twin Cities NWS.

It's not your imagination. That's a small craft advisory you saw on the map above for Lake Superior. Not the best week to take the small boat out on Superior. Four- to 8-footers on the big lake? Fire up the surfers on Stony Point near Knife River.

CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-

SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-

349 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY.

* SUSTAINED WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KT.

* WIND GUSTS...UP TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

Here's a look at some North Shore river-raging rainfall totals from the Duluth NWS.

Summer returns 

Summer returns later this week as a pleasant air mass moves back in the storm's wake Thursday and Friday. The next system rolls in late Saturday with more rain and thunder.

Steamy State Fair opener?

Here's a sure forecast bet. Lots of great food on a stick at the Minnesota State Fair, starting a week from Thursday. Another good bet? At least one day of 90 degree heat with a side of humidity.

It's still early, but the GFS has been hinting for a few runs at a possible hot start to the fair this year.

Sweating through our hour-long special live Climate Cast at the fair with Kerri Miller at 10 a.m. next Thursday? Priceless.

Stay tuned, and stay dry today.