How the changing electorate will affect the 2016 vote

A look ahead to caucus and elections days in 2016 and ask how the electorate has changed since 2012. What factors are motivating the key voting blocs in the states and districts that matter most?

MPR News' with Kerri Miller was joined by David Damore, Senior Analyst for Latino Decisions at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas; and Dante Chinni, Director of the American Communities Project at American University.

Conversation highlights

Suburbs have flipped from being reliably Republican to reliably Democratic

Chinni: "What's happened to the suburbs in America when you look at them in terms of their ethnic composition, income, and education is that they increasingly look like cities. There's this big debate about how we 'lost the suburbs.' We didn't lose the suburbs, the cities have just expanded. They've really taken in the suburbs now, and as that's happened, the suburbs have become reliably Democratic."

Chinni: "There used to be a line - that Democrats owned the cities, the suburbs were a battleground and Republicans tended to win. What's happened is the Democrats have expanded, they own the cities and increasingly own the suburbs. And that's pushed the Republicans out to exurban, the next ring out, and rural America."

Chinni: "The differences between rural America on religion; what they want to see happen with the economy, who they consider to be winners and losers in the economy ... there are some real differences of opinion there, and that's the fight that's happening on the GOP side of the nominating fire right now."

Immigration as a 'Latino' issue

Carlos, a caller from Eagan: "My issue is that, because I'm Latino, why does immigration have to be the most important thing for me?"

Damore: "We also tend to ask a question in our polls among citizens who are voters, "Do you know someone in your family, a close friend, or a co-worker who is undocumented?" Depending on the state, that is anywhere from 50 to 60 percent of voters. The sense here is that immigration is a personal issue for a lot of Latinos. It may not affect them personally because they are citizens, but it does affect people in their social and work circles."

Voters want moderate politicians that cooperate with one another, but they don't vote that way

Chinni: "If you look at the way congressional districts are drawn, they lean strongly one way or the other. There are a lot of safe seats out there. Those people are electing people that represent their views, and the country is just extremely divided right now."

MPR News intern Peter Diamond contributed to this story.