Winter storm arrives: Travel impacts through tomorrow

It's Monday, and our well advertised winter storm has arrived. The lead wave of mixed precipitation and snow rolled in this morning, and the heaviest bands of snow are still expected to arrive this afternoon through tonight as forecast.

Here are the latest details on our still maturing winter storm. As always you can get up tot he second reports with our MPR News weather live blog here.

Weather Headlines:

• Winter storm warnings out for much of southern Minnesota south and west of the Twin Cities.

• Winter weather advisories from the metro north and east.

• Heaviest snowfall rates of 1 inch-plus per hour at times arrive this afternoon through tonight.

• Widespread winter travel impacts today through Tuesday.

• Heavy wet snowfall, use caution shoveling.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

318 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... REACHING WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL... CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... STARTING THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND EAST... AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MAKING FOR A LONG DURATION EVENT. A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR OVER THAT TIME PERIOD. TOTAL SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD TO LITCHFIELD TO FARIBAULT

TO ALBERT LEA.

FOR CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TWO DAYS. ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR THESE AREAS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

Here's the storm on the maps. Low pressure spins north toward Minnesota with a payload of snow.

The heaviest snowfall rates arrive as the core of the low pressure system works north later today and this evening. Here's a good breakdown of the incoming system from the Twin Cities National Weather Service video briefing.

The latest model runs still suggest the heaviest snowfall bands west of the Twin Cities where a good 5 to 10 inches-plus could fall by Tuesday evening.

A mix of rain should hold totals down in the far east metro into western Wisconsin. For the bulk of the metro core, 4 to 8 inches seem like a likely snowfall range by late Tuesday.

Here's a glance at the model spread from Iowa State University.

Bottom line: As always with winter storms, impact is more important than inches. Expect wintry travel conditions through tonight and tomorrow.