Chilly Wednesday, Pacific surge and 40s ahead

Bye-bye snow cover.

One more brief swipe of Polar high pressure grazes Minnesota Wednesday. Then an impressive surge of unseasonably warm air for February is pushing ashore in the Pacific Northwest and ready to overwhelm what's left of winter in Minnesota.

Low pressure, southerly winds and a developing warm front push toward Minnesota by late Thursday.

Cold air first

First we enjoy a wintry Wednesday. You'll feel like a real Minnesotan Wednesday morning, as temps hover close to single digits above zero in the metro with some sub-zero numbers up north.

February thaw

The big picture perspective and narrative on our unseasonably mild El Nino winter remains the same. It's been hard to hang onto cold air for very long.

That trend continues this week, and damp foggy Seattle flavored air mass blows in starting Thursday. Highs could top 40 degrees in western and southern Minnesota including the metro for at least 3 days from Thursday through Saturday. Make it 4 if you believe the usually trusty European Model numbers.

Forecast models don't handle the extreme weather event well. As a result forecasters often miss the magnitude of extreme temperature swings. Don't be shocked if some weather stations and your car and local bank thermometers flash 50 degrees later this week.

Early spring?

The longer range NOAA CFSv2 products continue to beat the same warm drum. The outlooks for milder than average temperatures in March have been rock solid.

No doubt we'll have more wintry days and anything can happen in March in Minnesota. My money is on an early start to spring overall.

Stay tuned.

From the twitterverse

Severe weather in February in New York? Welcome to the new normal in an El Nino winter.

It's not you imagination. Mild winters are the rule this year. Except in Washington, D.C. but it's all relative.

January temperatures continue to astound.