Storm shifting south: Metro near miss?

Hail King Euro?

A few flakes may still fly in the Twin Cities Wednesday, but overnight model trends suggest most significant accumulations may stay south.

This is why I've been so reluctant to ignore the Euro and buy into NOAA's model solutions for Wednesday's inbound weather system. The late night model trends from NOAA's NAM model suggest the Euro's rock solid southern storm track solution may be coming to pass.

NOAA's 0Z NAM model has shifted dramatically south. Keep in mind this the the same model that was cranking out 10" snowfall totals for MSP Airport 24 hours ago.

Here's the updated 0Z NAM run from late Tuesday night. Note the distinct southward shift, and corresponding reduction in forecast snowfall totals in and near the Twin Cities. The NAM now prints out a mere 1.1" snowfall for MSP Airport.

NOAA's 0Z GFS model run is hanging onto the notion of snow in at least the the southeast half of the metro. I'm not ready to write off snow in the Twin Cities metro core just yet, but I'n getting close. At this point I'd say the chances are 50/50 that most of the metro misses any real snowfall accumulation. Heavy snow and travel impacts are still likely south of the Twin Cities, and in the southeast metro.

Here is the latest warning map from the Twin Cities NWS. I will be surprised if they add the most of Twin Cities to the winter storm warning at this point. A winter weather advisory seems much more likely.

The overnight Euro run comes in around 3 am. Then one more crack at NOAA's models tomorrow morning before the snow flies for real. There could still be issues for PM rush hour in the Twin Cities.

More during Morning Edition on MPR News 91.1 FM at 7:48 am.

Stay tuned.