Brighter Thursday, chilly fishing opener but 80 in sight

Searching for sunshine?

It's amazing how quickly our moods change with the weather. A bright sunny day and we forget about the temperature. Our spirits soar, the spring in our step returns, all is well with the world.

But too much sunshine can be a bad thing in weather.

Last weekend's smoke event reminds me that drought can actually be a kind of low-grade stress. We sense the fire danger creeping higher, as the landscape dries out. By the time we get to 'extreme fire danger' as we did in northern Minnesota and Ontario early this week, the weather stress level for me is palpable.

Perhaps it's too many years forecasting fire weather and watching Arizona's beautiful Ponderosa Pine forests go up in flames perhaps for this meteorologist. You never forget when you're on the air live reporting as a firestorm sweeps through the town of Summerhaven burning a mountian town and 340 sturctures to the ground in the Aspen Fire in the mountains above Tucson.

"You're as welcome as rain."

That's why being greeted as rain is a compliment in the desert. I love me some sunny days too, but I was really happy for the drier parts of Minnesota to see the rain this week.  90,000 evacuees in Fort McMurray wondering when, or if they'll see home again? Fires nipping at northern Minnesota's door? Smoke plumes invading the metro in the wee hours of the morning?

The rain-washed Huttner Weather Lab lilies have never looked so good.

Tale of two Minnesotas

Cathy Wurzer and I talked a lot this week about the substantial rainfall differences between southwest and northern Minnesota in the past month. Soggy 6" to 8" rainfall totals have piled up around Sioux Falls, Luverne and Worthington along the I-90 corridor in the past month. Standing water in soggy fields. Rivers and creeks at bank-full. Meanwhile much of northern Minnesota has recorded well under 2" in the past 30 days.

This week's rainfall continued the trend of wet south and drier north. Another 1" to 2" fell in in southern Minnesota. A welcome inch fell in the metro. Northern Minnesota got some rain, but totals were generally under .50" in most towns.

Here's a look at rainfall totals over the past 7 days from NOAA's Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service.

Northwest flow again

More sunshine returns Thursday as the low kicks east. You'll feel the cold front by Friday as northwest winds kick in.

Chilly Fishing Opener 2016

Bring the cold weather gear. Lows bottom out in the 30s this weekend, and highs struggle into thew 40s up north Saturday.

Northwest winds between 10-20+ will create a pretty good walleye chop. Weather the life jacket. The water is still hypothermic out there.

Big waves

The HopWRF wave model output cranks up some hefty 3'-4' waves on the bigger lakes like Mille Lacs Friday and Saturday. Make sure you know what you're doing out there.

Fishing Opener Weather History

Yes, this weekend is a big deal for Minnesotans and tourism.

Here's the definitive summary of fishing opener weather historically from the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

Minnesota's Fishing Opener weather is typified by partly cloudy to cloudy skies, morning temperatures in the low 40's, and afternoon temperatures climbing to near 70. Three out of four years are free of measurable precipitation. A trace of snow has been reported in northern Minnesota on at least five of the last 64 fishing openers. On at least four occasions, some lakes were still frozen for the opener. Generally there is enough wind to be felt on the face, maybe enough to 'fly' a flag. Weather on Minnesota fishing opener dates is highly variable. 64 years of fishing opener weather data are summarized here to offer a glimpse of what is 'typical' and what is 'extreme'.

Opening day temperatures have started as low as 24 degrees at International Falls (1996,2004), with freezing temperatures possible even in Minneapolis (31 degrees in 1979). On the warm side, St. Cloud saw 92 degrees in 1987, Minneapolis reported 91 in 1987, and International Falls reached 88 in 1977. The average early morning temperature varies from the high 30's in the northeast to the high 40's along the southern border. The average afternoon temperature generally ranges from the mid 60's along the northern border, to the low 70's in the extreme south. Along the shore of Lake Superior, highs are held in the mid 50's.

Three quarters of past opening days have been free of measurable precipitation. Two thirds of the fishing openers have been free of any precipitation, measurable or not. On those days with measurable rain, the amounts averaged close to a half-inch in the south and a quarter inch in the north. No amounts over one inch were recorded at International Falls, while Minneapolis experienced 1.15 in 1962 and 1.64 in 1965. St. Cloud saw 1.03 inches in 2008. Snowfall has generally has been limited to traces. Traces of snow were officially recorded in 1963, 1993, 2009 and 2013 at International Falls, and in 1968 at St. Cloud. A tenth (.1) of an inch fell at International Falls in 2000.

Statewide, less than one year in five offers totally clear skies. The average amount of cloudiness lies near that fuzzy boundary between 'partly cloudy' and 'cloudy', but over half of the dates were classified as cloudy.

Average daily wind speeds generally range between 8 and 15 miles per hour. This range can is described as 'wind felt on face ...' to '... wind extends light flag'. The predominant wind direction is split fairly evenly between blowing from the northwest, south, and east.

Forecast: Brighter Thursday

Thursday looks pretty nice as temps climb into the 60s with some sun. NOAA's GFS shows the weekend chill, and picks up on the warming trend next week as temps climb back into the upper 60s. N/X stand for min temp and max temp each day.

Summer returns late next week?

Hang in there. The upper air pattern looks favorable for a return to early summer warmth and humidity starting late next week. A ridge of  balmy high pressure builds over the central USA.

Temps in the 70s and even 80 starting the weekend of May 21st?

Cue the mosquitoes.