Mid 80s Tuesday, thunder returns Wednesday
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Fast forward summer of 2016?
The first June Bug buzzed on the Weather Lab window screen last night. On May 22nd.
Preview of coming attractions?
Yes, we're getting an early taste of summer this year. Monday's scattered T-Storms delivered some (spotty) needed rainfall. Low pressure wave #1 slides east Tuesday, and sunshine breaks out into a warm July-like air mass. The maps glow a bright shade of July-red as thermometers push toward the mid-80s Tuesday afternoon.
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Tuesday's drop in humidity will be noticeable as a direr air mass eases in from the northwest. Dew points in the metro ease into the mid 50s late Tuesday. The sticky factor falls accordingly, a warm and fairly dry heat. The northwest half on Minnesota enjoys comfy dew points in the 40s. AC optional from the Twin Cities northwest. Rochester, Des Moines and Madison enjoy a free humidifier with dew points in the 60s.
We come up for air Tuesday in between low pressure waves this week. By Wednesday morning, a warm front pushes back north. The tropical air mass lurking just south oozes in from Iowa. Late night "nocturnal" T-Storms rumble north into southern Minnesota in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday morning. Wednesday looks rain-soaked. Several hours of rain and embedded thunder linger Wednesday. Heavy downpours are a distinct possibility under the heavier cells.
The maps show the next low pressure wave pushing north.
Hit or miss season
There's a reason we use broad-brush terms on summer rainfall coverage like "scattered." Summer convection is cellular, covering only a small area. It pours in one town, dry in the town next door. This is why model runs paint widely differing rainfall totals in summer. Exhibit A; NOAA's NAM 4 km model run.
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1" to 3"+ rainfall totals still look likely over the next 7 days across southern Minnesota with lighter totals up north.
Tuesday brings the driest and sunniest day this week. Occasional hit or miss storms return Wednesday into Saturday. Sunday and Memorial Day are still looking sunny and nice, with highs in the low 80s.
NOAA's GFS also favors warm and dry days Sunday and Memorial Day.
My weather spidey senses continue to say this will be a hotter than average summer. Mid 80s on Tuesday is average high for mid-July.
Stay tuned.