Brighter holiday forecast by Sunday and Memorial Day?
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Welcome to a classic Memorial Day weekend in Minnesota.
This weekend's weather features a little bit of everything. Some rain. Some thunder. And yes, there will be many dry and sunny hours too. You'll just have to pick your spots.
The latest European model runs have come in a bit drier for this weekend. NOAA's suite of models favors the next wave of more widespread shower and T-Storm activity favoring Saturday afternoon and evening.
Your best odds for sunny boat-worthy weekend weather? Sunday and Memorial Day.
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European Model: Trending sunnier Sunday and Memorial Day
The Euro has grabbed hold of a trend that's been brewing in the models all week. A weak bubble of high pressure and slightly drier air mass oozes into Minnesota Sunday and Memorial Day. I can't rule out a pop-up T-shower, but for the most part I'm buying the trend that suggests Sunday and Memorial Day will be mostly sunny and pleasantly warm. This could be a winning holiday weather weekend 2 of 3 days.
Scattered storms Saturday
Saturday like like the wettest day of the holiday weekend. Many of us may pick up another .50" to 1" in the back yard.
NOAA's NAM model hits the notion of a primary wave of scattered thunderstorms riding north Saturday afternoon and evening. Dry skies prevail Sunday and Monday.
Low to no severe risk
A couple of storms could be strong Saturday afternoon and evening, but widespread severe weather is not likely. Saturday's risk map from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center keeps the marginal risk area south of Minnesota.
The Maps
Brief funnel near Moorhead Friday afternoon
Just enough spin in one of the pop-up thundershowers Friday to produce this scary sight near Moorhead.
Minor damage reports came into the Red River Valley NWS.
3 SSE Moorhead [Clay Co, MN] TRAINED SPOTTER reports TORNADO at 2:56 PM CDT -- REPORT OF TOUCHDOWN JUST WEST OF HWY 52, NEAR 50TH AVE S. DAMAGE TO A TREE ROW. UPDATED WITH CORRECTED LOCATION.
Springtime upper level low pressure system are capable of producing brief non-supercell type funnels. These can touch down and do minor damage.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
509 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016
...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS... BUT TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SHOULD A TORNADO OCCUR...IT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED. IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER... PLEASE REPORT IT TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND ASK THAT THEY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Seasonably cool, hotter by June 9th?
The last days of May and early June look pretty typical. Highs in the 70s, with a mix of sunny days and and occasional bouts of showers and a few T-Storms? We've seen this Minnesota weather movie before. Here's NOAA's GFS 16-day temperature output into early June.
The maps are hinting at a push of warmer air around June 9th. If this map verifies, 80 may not be warm enough on the 9th or 10th of June as Minnesota rides the northern edge of a budding heat wave to the south.
Stay tuned.