Severe risk Friday; Atlantic hurricane season arrives

Spring being a tough act to follow, God created June. - Al Bernstein

Meteorological Summer 2016

Happy June!

The brightest month of the year in the northern hemisphere has arrived. June in Minnesota means long daylight, changeable skies and the persistent risk of a stray severe storm or two. Some of our most pleasant air masses slide south from Canada this month. The peak of severe season in Minnesota also arrives.

We get a taste of all of that this week.

Meteorological summer also arrives today. The months of June through August define "summer" meteorologically speaking.

Changeable skies

Low pressure swirls across northern Minnesota today with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Low No. 1 pulls east tomorrow, leaving a strikingly beautiful Thursday. Low wave No. 2 rides east Friday with the next shot of showers and thunderstorms.

Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's NAM 4 km resolution model. Showers favor the northern half of the metro today, but could also graze the Twin Cities. A more potent wave of storms arrives Friday.

Severe risk Friday

Friday brings a risk of severe storms. There's enough low level spin to produce some rotating thunderstorms that may reach severe levels. Hail, high winds and even tornadoes are a possibility. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the Twin Cities and surrounding area into the slight risk zone Friday.

Here's the pertinent passage from Storm Prediction Center's Friday's convective outlook. Feed your inner weather geek.

SHEAR SHOULD BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF IA/MN/WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA...GIVEN THE APPARENT/EVOLVING RISK FOR HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

Keep an eye out Friday afternoon for possible watches and warnings.

Right on schedule

The next four weeks are the peak of severe weather season in Minnesota. We lucked out with a mostly nice Memorial Day weekend.

The statistical peak of severe weather arrives between now and the Fourth of July.

Hurricane season arrives

The traditional definition of 'hurricane season' has been stretched in recent years. We've seen two named storms in the Atlantic already this season. But today marks the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane season for 2016.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie strafes the Carolina coast before heading out to sea to remind us it's officially hurricane season.

There are a lot of hurricane web sites out there.

This site, spaghettimodles.com is a good one. There's already chatter of a possible Tropical Storm Colin early next week somewhere near south Florida?

Happy official first day of Hurricane Season! GFS has caught up to the EURO idea of low pressure coming into the Florida peninsula early next week. EURO has been relentless on this. CMC of course is showing something too (but eagerly stronger as always).

Timing looks like early in the week from whatever becomes. A rain and wind event at the very least seems likely. It appears to be a quick mover off to the NE... so timing initially will be the big obstacle on how much formation. Keep an eye out for sure as climatology this is the spot to watch in June. Colin?

June favors tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Mexico.

[image]

Oceanic heat content favors development in the Gulf of Mexico in June, and ocean temps so far this year fit that trend.

Hurricane 'amnesia' in Florida?

It's been almost 11 years since Wilma raked Florida in 2005.

[image]

Wilma was the end of a very bad run of luck for the Sunshine State. The rash of hurricanes in 2005 literally drove insurers out of Florida.

It's just a matter of time before Florida's 10+ year hurricane drought come to a dramatic end. NPR has a nice piece that aired this morning before my weather chat on Morning Edition.

Hurricane season has begun. On average, Florida gets a hurricane about every two years. But there hasn't been one in nearly 11 years. This has emergency managers worried about residents' complacency.

Active hurricane season?

The transition to La Nina could mean a more active Atlantic hurricane season. Of course, just one Category 3 to 5 landfall can ruin your year, or decade.

Here's NOAA's 2016 hurricane outlook.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, will most likely be near-normal, but forecast uncertainty in the climate signals that influence the formation of Atlantic storms make predicting this season particularly difficult.

NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). While a near-normal season is most likely with a 45 percent chance, there is also a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season. Included in today’s outlook is Hurricane Alex, a pre-season storm that formed over the far eastern Atlantic in January.

“This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it’s difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. "However, a near-normal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we’ve seen in the last three years, which were below normal.”

My weather spidey senses tell me this will be a newsworthy year for U.S. hurricane landfalls.

Stay tuned.