Stormy Friday: Severe wind and hail risk

Keep the weather radio and MPR News handy Friday.

A fairly strong low pressure system moves through Minnesota Friday. There are still uncertainties around just how much severe weather will occur, but the threat for severe storms packing high winds, hail and even a few tornadoes is there Friday across a good chunk of Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

This Twin Cities NWS graphic still does a good job of summarizing the risk zone and potential threats.

Here's a wider view of Friday risk area from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

What does a "slight risk" mean? Here's a good look at what NOAA's "risk areas" mean.

Hailers?

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has an eye on the large hail threat Friday. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are also possible.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR MINNEAPOLIS AT 21Z SHOW DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR ALOFT FOR STORM ROTATION. IF A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THEN THE WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. COLD TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WOULD BE

FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST. IF SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP AND CROSS THE WARM FRONT...THEN A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. A HATCHED AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES CONCERNING THE LOCATION FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

I'm keeping the Weather Lab Ferrari in the garage tomorrow.

Storm timing

The timing of storms is still a little up in the air Friday. That's pretty typical in severe weather situations, which can change hour to hour with clouds and heating potential.

Models still differ on specifics, but a wave of potentially severe storms moving east from the Dakotas in the morning looks likely. Scattered storms continue to pop up during the afternoon and evening along the advancing warm front and in the warm sector. NOAA's NAM 4 km resolution model gives a good idea of probable storm timing.

Bottom Line: Severe weather is quite possible Friday. Be ready for severe weather watches and warnings.

Here's a look at the bigger picture. Low pressure rolls east into Minnesota Friday. A few stray pop-up storms may linger in the wrap-around Saturday with drier skies arriving by Sunday.

Warmer next week

Summer pushes north next week. The jet stream slides north into Canada. Minnesota rides the northern edge of a building heat dome by late next week. Preview of coming attractions this summer?

Here's the European model output for MSP for the next week. Upper 80s to near 90 by next Thursday? I've taken the liberty to overlay my temperature forecast numbers in Fahrenheit on the image below.

A little dry

The rain will be welcome in at least 42.88% of Minnesota. Here's a look at this week's updated U.S. Drought Monitor.

Hopefully we'll get through Friday without any major severe reports, but the Weather Lab Doppler will be busy Friday.

Stay tuned.