Tracking 90 degree heat next week, Tropical Storm Colin?

Easing into summer

Summer creeps in on cat's paws in Minnesota.

Glancing reference to the eloquent Carl Sandburg aside, summer has a way of drifting stealthily into Minnesota. One day the sun feels warm. Gentle balmy south breezes blow over dandelion-laced lawns. A few puffy white cumulus clouds decorate an otherwise deep blue sky. The slightly sticky air conjures up visions of a trip to your local ice cream shop. The water is finally warm enough for a swim. Your local weatherman waxes poetic.

Saturday starts cool and a little wet, but the weather maps are finally showing signs of a deeper summer pattern in the next 7 days. The pre-solstice sun comes out with increasing force starting Sunday and lasting through much of next week. lazy high pressure drifts overhead early next week. Light winds, dew points in the 40s and highs in the 70s bring some of the best weather of the year to Minnesota Monday through Wednesday.

Temperatures push higher by Thursday as southerly flow kicks in. Highs soar into the summery 80s, and a real shot at a sticky 90 degrees looks likely by Friday and Saturday of next week.

Summer arrives in Minnesota next week.

For real.

Weekend: Gray to blue

Our weekend starts cloudy and slightly wet. Minnesota lingers in the wrap-around as low pressure swirls east Saturday. Sunday features more sun, warmer temperatures and just an isolated passing PM shower threat.

The upper air pattern favors more sun and warmer temperatures as next week unfolds. We start in the low 70s Monday and Tuesday, but by Friday the upper air flow pushes a building 90-degree heat dome north toward Minnesota.

The European model is cranking out some pretty impressive temperature numbers by late next week.  90-degree temps in the Twin Cities and much of southern Minnesota by next Friday? It looks more likely than not. Here's the Euro output for the Twin Cities, I've laid my (Fahrenheit) temperature forecast numbers over the top.

Warm Minnesota summer?

I still think we'll see a warmer than average summer with a (much?) higher number of 90-degree days than the past two summers. NOAA agrees. Here's the link to NOAA's summer 2016 outlook.

Seeley: Near record wet May for southwest Minnesota

I've posted and talked about the big differences in May rainfall over Minnesota. The north has been dry and appreciated the rains late in may. Fields in southwest Minnesota have been waterlogged. University of Minnesota's Dr. Mark Seeley has some interesting data points on how wet it's been in southern Minnesota in this week's Weather Talk post.

Topic: May closes wet for some

The last week of May brought frequent, and sometimes heavy rains to many parts of the state. for some northern Minnesota climate stations it rained each day over the last week of the month. Sotty thunderstorms brought some new record daily rainfall amounts over the last day of May, including 0.99 inces at Lakefield; 1.67 inches at Hokah; 1.29 inches at La Crescent; 1.27 inches at Austin; 1.19 inches at Hallock; and an incredible 4.45 inches at Crookston. That amount at Crookston ranked as the 4th highest daily rainfall in history there.

Thought most areas of the state recorded a drier than normal May, thanks to the high frequency of rainfall during the last week, a few climate stations reported one of their wettest Mays. Some of these included:

Crookston 6.68 inches (3rd wettest)

Lakefield 5.44 inches (5th wettest)

Lamberton 5.56 inches (9yh wettest)

Worthington 6.90 inches (7th wettest)

Hutchinson 7.29 inches (2nd wettest)

Stored soil moisture remains near average or greater for most areas of the state as we head into June.

Vote for the 2017 Minnesota Weatherguide cover photo

This week I've been putting the finishing touches on my contribution to the 2017 Minnesota Weatherguide Calendar. You can have a voice in the cover photo selection. Vote here at the Freshwater Society before Monday!

Tropical Storm Colin near Florida early next week?

I'm watching a tropical wave heading for Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that has the potential to develop into Tropical Storm Colin in the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

There's plenty of warm water for potential Colin to work with in the Gulf of Mexico.

Many models develop Colin to Tropical Storm status by Monday or Tuesday as it crosses Florida.

NOAA's NAM model pushes heavy rains into Florida by Monday.

Several inches of rain is likely, and flash flood potential is rising from Tampa eastward across Florida early next week.

Weather and climate stories - Here are a few that caught my eye this week.

Texas Floods

The magnitude of the extreme rainfall event in Texas is stunning. Some areas have recorded several years worth of rain over 40" of rain in the past few months.

Flood rescues continue.

Golf carts or kayaks?

Fire ants cling to life. Why?

Extreme rains flooding Europe too.

Arctic warming continues to turn heads in 2016.

Record low Arctic Sea ice continues as a result.

Effects visible from space.

Meanwhile Canada is still burning.

A climate tragedy for one of the 7 natural wonders of the world? Sad beyond words.

The extreme weather and climate stories above unrelated? The growing body of evidence strongly suggests climate change is the binding element here.

For and interesting discussions on the Arctic and how scientists in Greenland are monitoring effects of wildfire soot and "dark snow" check out MPR's Climate Cast here.

Have a great weekend!