Midnight thunder, sticky front arrives overnight
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Get ready to fire up the AC unit.
An active warm front bubbles north overnight. The front marks the leading edge of a hot, sticky air mass of tropical origins. Scattered thundershowers rumble across Minnesota tonight. You'll notice dew points rising Thursday. The latest European model guidance keeps a hot sticky air mass around through the weekend, with occasional thunder chances.
Evacuate to the lake? Minnesota's 10,000+ lakes look increasingly attractive as the weekend approaches.
Midnight thunder
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Or 10 pm, or 3 am depending on your relative location to the advancing warm front. A broken band of scattered T-storms bumps along the advancing warm front overnight into early Thursday morning. Lightning, thunder and some respectable downpours shift slowly eastward overnight from the Minnesota River Valley toward a St. Cloud-MSP-Rochester axis.
Thunder claps and local downpours may wake you up anytime from late evening through the overnight hours. Severe risk is low. A few storms may linger into Thursday's AM rush hour, a wet commute is possible.
Latest Twin Cities radar loop.
NOAA's NAM 4 km resolution model tracks radar trends overnight.
Soaking rainfall locally?
A few of the short term models are cranking out rainfall totals that could reach .50"+ locally overnight into early Thursday. If the advancing line of 'training' storms stalls, a few spots could see heavier totals.
Heat builds by Friday
Friday still looks hot and humid. The warm front gurgles slowly north over the next 48 hours.
Advancing warm fronts and stalled low pressure systems are tricky when it comes to rainfall forecasts. A few different waves of juicy T-Storms may drop some locally heavy rain in the next 7-days. Some 1" to 2" totals may be common, but summertime convective rainfall coverage is often spotty and uneven. The best chances for cooling thunderstorms with needed rainfall look like tonight, Friday night and Monday.
Here's the broad-brush look at rainfall output from NOAA over the next week.
Heat holds this weekend?
There a some subtle but important differences in the forecast models this weekend. NOAA models suggests a weak cool front will temper Friday's heat by this weekend. ECMWF output says not so fast; temperatures near or above 90 continue for the metro and most of southern Minnesota. Here's the Euro notion of temps still near 90 in the metro all weekend.
Hot June?
This may not be the last 'heat spike' we see in June. Upper air charts suggest the heat dome may become a resurgent feature by late next week. NOAA Climate Prediction Center cranks out another warmer than average chart as we transition into the second half of June.
Minnesota's warm weather hit just keep on comin'. May was the 9th straight warmer than average month in Minnesota. The Twin Cities NWS confirms the 8th warmest 'meteorological spring' in Minnesota this year. The U.S. tallied the 6th warmest spring on record.
Baked Alaska
Meanwhile Alaska continues to set unprecedented warm weather records. The trends in the Arctic are eye opening, even disturbing to climate watchers like me. The Capital Weather Gang's always insightful Jason Samenow elaborates on just how far off the charts Alaska's warmth has been.
Meanwhile in California, they watch precious snow cover vanish once again. Climate Cast guest Eric Holthuas contributes this.