Steamy to stormy: Tropical air mass capable of downpours

Here we go again.

A sticky tropical air mass oozes north into Minnesota today. Dew points are already on the rise toward the benchmark 70 degree threshold. Pick your favorite overblown weather adjective. Tropical. Sticky. Steamy. Barbaric? Dew points may pool and approach 80 degrees in parts of Minnesota by Thursday morning. How lovely.

All that rich jungle moisture is fuel for thunderstorms. Throw in little atmospheric ripples aloft and a stalled front at the surface, and you've got the growing potential for heavy, potentially flooding downpours and severe weather across Minnesota in the next 48 hours.

The maps tell the story. Low pressure wave and stalled front spells trouble for meteorologists and red flags for flash flood forecasters.

Heavy rainfall

Multi inch rainfall totals still look likely across Minnesota this week. The best chance for heavy rains arrives Wednesday night into Thursday. Stalled storms paint 3, multi-inch rainfall trouble spots this week. The desert southwest, Gulf Coast and Minnesota.

Tropical connection

Tropical Storm Javier has weakened today to tropical depression status. Some of Javier's moisture will get rung out over Arizona where flash flood watches are flying.

The rest of Javier's moisture will get picked up by mid-level winds and injected into the low pressure system over Minnesota. This will enhance rainfall totals this week. The best chance for 3" to potentially 5" to 6" rainfall totals favors the red River Valley into west and central Minnesota.

The hottest days this week looks like Wednesday and Thursday. A barbaric combination of 90+ degree heat and dew points in the 70s could push heat index values well over the 100 degree mark.

Weekend relief, heat returns next week

Cooler breezes blow in this weekend, but the heat returns next week.

August looks to continue what July started when it comes to heat and rainfall trends.