Cooler here; Florida braces for Matthew

Overnight rain totals included .67 of an inch at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport and .52 of an inch in Eden Prairie.

Higher amounts, in the one to two inch range, fell from around Fairmont to just south of St. Cloud.

Here are 24 hour rainfall estimates from the National Weather Service radar in Chanhassen:

Showers will linger into early afternoon over parts of northeastern Minnesota.

The next rain chance of rain in the Twin Cities is Thursday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale 4 km resolution forecast model shows rain spreading over much of eastern Minnesota Thursday evening and Thursday night:

Rain should exit eastern Minnesota Friday morning.

Cooler temps

Highs today will be in the chilly 50s over northwestern Minnesota, with mainly 60s elsewhere:

Southeastern Minnesota and the metro area should touch 70 degrees or so.

The cool air spreads southeastward tomorrow:

By Friday morning, low temps in the 30s will be common over northern and central Minnesota:

We could see lows in the 30s over much of Minnesota Saturday morning:

With light winds, some frost is possible Saturday morning in parts of the metro area.

Hurricane Matthew,

Hurricane Matthew is near the Bahamas this morning:

Matthew is a category 3 hurricane, with max winds of 115 mph.

These are the hurricane categories that are used by the National Hurricane Center:

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center indicates that Matthew may strengthen today and tonight:

BULLETIN

HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  29A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

800 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN

BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.5N 74.9W

ABOUT 45 MI...85 KM ENE OF CABO LUCRECIA CUBA

ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Haiti

* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,

and Las Tunas

* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,

Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island

* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,

San Salvador, and Cat Island

* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,

Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and

New Providence

* North of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet

* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Cuban province of Camaguey

* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Fernandina Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

* Turks and Caicos Islands

* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach

* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward

* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with

Haiti

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys

should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,

including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office. For storm information specific to your area outside

the United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was

located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 74.9 West. Matthew is

moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This

motion is expected to continue today, followed by a northwestward

turn tonight.  On this track, Matthew will be moving across the

Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east

coast of Florida by Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some slight strengthening is forecast during

the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from

the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160

miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by NOAA and Air Force

Hurricane Hunter planes was 964 mb (28.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue affecting the

northwestern portion of Haiti this morning.  Hurricane conditions

are likely occuring over eastern Cuba and portions of the

southeastern Bahamas.  Hurricane conditions are expected to spread

over the central Bahamas later today and the northwestern Bahamas

tonight.

Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of Haiti and

eastern Cuba this morning.  Tropical storm conditions are spreading

over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and

should reach the central and northwestern Bahamas later today,

making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm

conditions should diminish within the warning area in the Dominican

Republic this morning.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible in the

hurricane watch areas in Cuba this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area

in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected

by early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions should reach the

tropical storm warning area in Florida by early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in

the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25

inches, isolated 40 inches

Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated

20 inches

Eastern Jamaica...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals

12 inches

The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches

Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3

inches, isolated 5 inches

Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to

7 inches, isolated 10 inches

Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern

and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and

eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large

and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the

following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet

South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet

Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet

Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet

The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur

well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of

life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the

Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Sebastian Inlet.

There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the

next 48 hours from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county

line. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype

National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of

areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or

warning currently under development by the National Weather Service

and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is

available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions

of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during

the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your

local weather office.

Hurricane Matthew is expected to be near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening:

Hurricane warnings and tropical storm warnings have been issued for much of Florida's eastern coast.

Here is the Hurricane Matthew statement from the Miami office of the NWS:

Hurricane Matthew could eventually affect the Carolinas. Here is the “spaghetti plot” of Matthew’s possible track, generated by several different computer models:

The National Hurricane Center will post regular Hurricane Matthew updates.