Matthew: Next multi-billion dollar weather disaster?

Wednesday's forecast models are not kind to eastern Florida.

The latest model trends favor a continued westward shift in the track of Hurricane Matthew. Two of the more reliable models, NOAA's GFS and the European model (ECMWF) now project a landfall along Florida's east coast Friday. What's worse, Matthew's track parallels the coast, meaning a potentially much longer 'interaction' with a bigger swath of coastline than a hurricane making a more direct hit.

First, here's the view of Hurricane Matthew from space. The storm is getting better organized as it moves into the Bahamas. Matthew is growing bigger and more concentric over warmer water and with little friction form land. The view suggests Matthew is in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle, the hint of a new eye ready to form once again tonight.

Here's another view, the GOES Infra Red shot. Notice the storm's core flaring and gaining strength.

Florida landfall looks more likely now

Wednesday's model runs shifted Matthew's track slightly further west again. First, here's the latest (5 pm EDT) official forecast track from NOAA's National Hurricane Center. By 2 pm Friday, NHC's official forecast calls for a 130 mph hurricane near the Space Coast. That's a borderline Category 4 storm.

Here's the latest ECMWF (Euro) run, projecting a landfall near Florida's Space Coast. The Euro then buzzes the coast with Matthew all the way to Charleston before a hard right turn out to sea.

And here's NOAA's 12Z GFS run, a long-track landfall along Florida's east coast. If this track verifies, a 200+ mile long swath of Florida's east coast would be raked by Matthew's eyewall.

Widespread catastrophic damage

The potential damage from Category 3 or Category 4 storm will be extensive if the eyewall rakes the coastline as expected. NOAA's Saffir-Simpson Scale describes expected damage based on hurricane intensity.

Multi-billion dollar insurance loss potential

The insurance industry is busy cranking our models that project potential catastrophic losses from Matthew based on various tracks. I spoke with Andrew Siffert from Twin Cities-based BMS Intermediaries on Weather Lab with Paul Huttner on MPR News this morning.

Andrew told me some models are projecting a $1.6B loss from Matthew. That was this morning before new model runs came in with a continues westward shift, and a potentially longer eyewall interaction with Florida's pricey east coast. It is likely safe to assume those numbers will go higher if the now projected more direct hit occurs Friday.

It appears Matthew is about to become the next billion dollar weather disaster.

Stay tuned.