Catastrophic: Hurricane Matthew damage could rival Sandy, Katrina

There are times in weather forecasting where you don't want to believe your eyes. This is one of those days.

All available meteorological evidence now suggests that Florida's east coast is about to suffer catastrophic damage from Hurricane Matthew. The powerful category 4 storm packs 140 mph winds and is heading for Florida's east coast in the next 24 hours.

NOAA's National Hurricane Center isn't pulling any punches with it's advisories.

BULLETIN

HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 35

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016

500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW ABOUT TO HIT FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...

...POTENTIALLY DISASTROUS IMPACTS FOR FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.2N 78.6W

ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND

ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

Long-track landfall: Worst case scenario 

It's one thing for a hurricane to put a direct hit on the coast. But when the hurricane's eyewall tracks parallel to the coast for more than 400 miles, that causes destruction over a much bigger area for a longer period of time.

This is why Hurricane Matthew's increasingly likely forecast track is a worst case scenario for Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. The list of cities that Matthew will impact, from West Palm Beach through Jacksonville, Savannah and Charleston contain millions of people, and billions of dollars in real estate. The low lying cities and waterways are extremely vulnerable to coastal storm surge.

Track consensus

Forecast models have reached a high level of consensus on Matthew's forecast track. Many are very close NOAA's GFS solution below. A major hurricane tearing up the southeast coast like a buzz-saw, with record warm Gulf Stream waters on the east side of the system sustaining and feeding the storms intensity. That's an unprecedented scenario in the modern record.

Here's the official HNC forecast track.

Extensive structural wind damage

Matthew's 140 mph winds will tear apart homes and buildings. It will knock down millions of trees and power lines. It will cause widespread power outages over a massive area. Power may not be restored in some areas for weeks, of months.

Hurricane force wind gusts above 74 mph will likely spread well inland across central Florida, including the densely populated Orlando area.

Extensive storm surge flooding

Matthew's powerful storm surge is forecast and now likely to push waters 4 to 11+ feet above normal levels along parts of Florida's east coast. That level of surge is increasingly likely to inundate extensive parts of cities along Florida's east coast, including downtown Jacksonville.

Double landfall in south Florida?

Matthew's extended forecast track has evolved into a weird solution. Several models are now suggesting Matthew will loop back into south Florida, possibly near Miami. This lower confidence solution would present a weaker system if that happens, but it's still a threat.

Here's NOAA's GFS 'loop back' solution with a second landfall near Miami early next week.

Massive catastrophic losses

Matthew's human toll is the most important to focus on in the near term. But the longer term financial toll could be devastating. After talking with people who monitor and model catastrophic loss, I am now assessing that the stronger category 4 storm combined with a more direct hit on the coast could produce staggering cat losses. I will not be surprised if we are talking about tens of billions in insured losses. It's just my analysis, but I now believe we could be looking at cat losses rivaling the $50-billion that Sandy produced. And those numbers could go higher depending on surge damage and precise track.

Here are the top 10 costliest U.S. weather disasters according to Trusted Choice.

5. Hurricane Sandy

• Cost: $50 Billion

• Fatalities: 159

• Date: October 2012

• Location: New Jersey and New York

Hurricane Sandy caused water levels to rise dangerously high across the eastern seaboard, but New Jersey and New York were hit hardest. Winds from the hurricane affected homes over 1,000 miles away from the coast. Secretary Shaun Donovan, head of the Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Taskforce, reported that as of August, 2013, FEMA has doled out $12 billion in federal relief loans to residents who lost homes during the storm. Only 72 of those who died were killed by the hurricane itself. The remaining 87 died of hypothermia or carbon monoxide poisoning due to a shortage of safe heating sources afterward, amid massive power outages and brutal cold.

If Matthew's storm track verifies as expected, it is possible that this could eventually approach Hurricane Katrina as the costliest weather disaster in U.S. history.

Bottom line: 

There's just no way to sugar coat this one. All indications are Matthew will bring catastrophic damage to the southeast U.S. over the next 48 hours. Significant loss of life, extensive storm surge flooding, widespread structural damage and power outages are imminent for many cities along the southeast U.S. coastline. NASA facilities along the Space Coast will likely suffer extensive damage.

Matthew is history unfolding right in front of us.