Rain tonight; Matthew will hit Florida

We have periods of rain in our forecast tonight, with a few scattered thunderstorms also possible.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale 4 km resolution forecast model shows rain spreading over much of Minnesota this evening and overnight:

The rain could linger over northeastern Minnesota Friday morning.

Cooler temps

Highs in the 50s are expected over northwestern and central Minnesota today, with 60s over the southeast:

Minnesota will see highs in the 40s and 50s on Friday:

Low temps in the 30s are expected in most areas Saturday morning:

Many of us will see frost early Saturday morning, even in the Twin Cities metro area. When winds are light it can be several degrees colder at ground level, compared to the official temp two meters above the ground.

Lows in the 30s will be common Sunday morning as well:

Matthew nears Florida

Hurricane Matthew is bringing damaging winds and torrential rains to the Bahamas this morning:

The infrared satellite loop shows the highest and coldest (red hues) cloud tops of Matthew, surrounding the eye wall:

Matthew is a category 3 hurricane, with max winds of 125 mph.

These are the hurricane categories that are used by the National Hurricane Center:

The National Hurricane Center predicts that Matthew will become a category 4 hurricane before it approaches the Florida coast tonight.

Here is the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  33A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

800 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW APPROACHING ANDROS ISLAND IN

THE BAHAMAS...

...OUTER RAINBANDS ALREADY APPROACHING FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.6N 77.5W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF NASSAU BAHAMAS

ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane

Warning for the southeastern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,

San Salvador, and Cat Island

* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,

Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and

New Providence

* North of Golden Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach

* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward

* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and

in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,

including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office. For storm information specific to your area outside the

United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located

near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 77.5 West. Matthew is moving

toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion

is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the north-northwest is

expected tonight.  On the forecast track, the eye of Matthew should

pass near Andros Island and New Providence in the northwestern

Bahamas during the next few hours, pass near Grand Bahama

Island late today, and move very close to the east coast of the

Florida peninsula tonight through Friday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate

that the maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with

higher gusts.  Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-

Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected

today, and Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it

approaches the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160

miles (260 km). Nassau in the Bahamas recently reported sustained

winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) with a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated by a reconnaissance

aircraft was 940 mb (27.76 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas

and spread into the northwestern Bahamas today.  Winds will

continue to diminish over the southeastern Bahamas this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane

warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward

within the warning area through Friday.  Tropical storm conditions

are first expected in Florida by late this morning.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in

northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with

tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch

area on the Florida Gulf Coast beginning later today.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents

in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of

a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson

category higher than the winds near the surface.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large

and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the

following amounts above normal tide levels...

Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River, including portions of the St.

Johns River...6 to 9 ft

Savannah River to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft

Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft

Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur

well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of life-

threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida

east coast and Georgia coast from Deerfield Beach to Altamaha Sound.

There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the

next 48 hours from north of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National

Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information

specific to your area, please see products issued by your local

National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of

areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or

warning currently under development by the National Weather Service

and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is

available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in

the following areas:

The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches

Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to

8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches

The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated totals of 5 inches

Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals

of 20 inches

Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals

of 8 inches

Turks and Caicos Islands...less than one additional inch, isolated

storm-totals of 8 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central

and eastern Cuba.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions

of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,

and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the

southeast U.S. coast through the weekend.  These swells will likely

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.

The National Hurricane Center "cone of uncertainty" shows that Matthew's center may ride along Florida's eastern shoreline later tonight into Friday night:

Damaging winds, torrential rains and strong storm surge flooding will hit much of the eastern coast of Florida tonight and tomorrow.

A glossary of terms that are used by the National Hurricane Center is available.

The area from Miami southward might escape the worst of Hurricane Matthew, but they are still in a tropical storm warning.

Here is a summary from the Miami National Weather Service office:

Hurricane force winds are possible just to the north of Miami, and up along the east coasts of Florida and Georgia.

Hurricane Matthew could eventually affect the Carolinas. Here is the “spaghetti plot” of Matthew’s possible track, generated by several different computer models:

A couple of the computer models show Hurricane Matthew looping out to sea later this weekend, then returning to south Florida early next week.

We all hope that doesn't happen!

The National Hurricane Center will post regular Hurricane Matthew updates.