Soaker: 1 inch-plus rainfall totals likely tonight

Our string of seven rain-free days is about to end.

A potent low pressure wave tracks east tonight. Bands of rain ride east with the low. A few lead showers arrive today, but the bulk of the heavier rainfall arrives tonight as the low pushes in.

Rainfall totals look impressive with this system. Widespread one-half to 1.5-inch totals are likely, and some parts of southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin could exceed the 2-inch mark by Wednesday.

The rain covers central and northern Minnesota as well, but rainfall totals will be generally lighter. Here's the view from the Duluth National Weather Service office. It could be snow this time of year.

The latest model output suggests more than an inch of rain for parts of the Twin Cities.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's NAM 4 km model is even more aggressive with rainfall totals, cranking out some 2-inch to 4-inch totals from the metro south.

The low moves east by Thursday and drier skies return to Minnesota.

Crop report: Dry week helped farmers

Farmers finally had a chance to get into the fields for harvest over the past week. Still, corn harvest is running nearly a week behind last year.

More detail here from this week's Minnesota Crop Report.

Almost one-quarter of the corn for grain was harvested in Minnesota during the week ending October 23, 2016, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. There were 5.8 days suitable for fieldwork, the most days suitable since the first week of July.

While the weather allowed harvest operations to progress, there were still areas that remained too wet to harvest. Field activities for the week included harvesting, fall fertilizer applications, and fall tilling. Topsoil moisture supplies were rated 0 percent very short, 2 percent short, 78 percent adequate, and 20 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies were rated 0 percent very short, 2 percent short, 78 percent adequate, and 20 percent surplus.

With nearly one-quarter of the corn for grain harvested during the week, corn for grain harvest advanced to 55 percent complete, 3 days behind the five-year average and 6 days behind last year. Corn moisture content of grain at harvest was 18 percent. Corn condition rated 87 percent good to excellent, up 1 percentage point from last week. Soybean harvest was 95 percent complete, 1 week behind last year. Sixty-five percent of the sunflower acreage was harvested. Advancing 20 percentage points from the previous week, 91 percent of the sugarbeet crop was harvested, equal to the average, but 10 days behind last year.

Halloween: A shot at 60 degrees?

Halloween still looks milder than average. The latest model runs suggest a high of 60 degrees at MSP next Monday. Here's the latest output from NOAA's Global Forecast System model. Highs surge into the 60s again Friday, with a high near 60 on Halloween.