Battleground states: What to look for in PA, OH, FL and NC

With less than a week to go, the Trump and Clinton camps are zeroing in on states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina — and for good reason. These states can make or break an election.

By FiveThirtyEight's last count Florida has a 17.7 percent chance of tipping the results of the election.

Pennsylvania and Ohio have a 9.9 and 6 percent chance of swaying the results respectively. Political reporters on the ground in each of those states talked about the issues and candidates that are taking hold in their backyards.

Guests

Tom Fitzgerald, Philadelphia Inquirer political writer.

Jeremy Fugleberg, staff writer at Cincinnati.com.

Trimmel Gomes, host of The Rotunda podcast, based in Florida.

Dave Dewitt managing editor for news at WUNC in North Carolina.

The gist of the conversation

The votes in these states depend on two major factors: African American turnout and the rural-urban divide.

African Americans are more likely to vote Democratic, but we're seeing low turnout in early voting in states like North Carolina.

Rural communities are more likely to vote Republican, but their urban, Democratic counterparts are more likely to sway the state with their higher populations.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania has always had a window open to Republicans, said Fitzgerald. Even though they've voted Democratic since 1992, Republicans see opportunities there, especially in the rural counties.

"Then there's a whole lot of money spent, and a frenzy of visits, and the Democrats win," he said. "Republicans talk about the situation with Pennsylvania, like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown...and then yanking it away at the last moment."

On election night, Fitzgerald will be watching the southwest part of the state as well as as Philadelphia, specifically for African American turnout.

Southwestern Pennsylvania is primarily rural, and "very real Trump country," but the population has been shrinking, moving east to more urban counties.

"About the only way [Hillary Clinton] would really lose the state would be if there was a collapse in African American turnout," Fitzgerald said.

Clinton has done well with African American voters, but there are concerns about voter turnout.

"I'll be trying to weigh what that balance is shaping up to be."

Ohio

Ohio has been a consistent swing state and bellwether for the country.

"We've got a very diverse state, to a degree, although that's changing," said Fugleburg. "Also very mixed types of economies...so up until relatively recently it was very reflective of America."

But demographics are shifting and Ohio is becoming less diverse. "America is changing in ways Ohio is not," he said.

The demographic change can be blamed on the economic downturn, he said. "You're not attracting the same type of diversity because the jobs just aren't what they used to be."

Ohio, like Pennsylvania and the other swing states, is looking to its rural communities to vote Republican, and its urban areas to vote Democratic. However, there may be another factor at play, especially for Ohio Republicans.

Governor John Kasich lost the GOP nomination for president, everywhere except Ohio, and has kept his distance from GOP nominee Donald Trump.

"Kasich is a pretty popular governor," said Fugleberg. He heard from a Kasich fan who is leaving a Kasich sign in his yard until 2020. Republicans in the state are looking past this election to the next.

"The Ohio Republican Party is Kasich's party," he said. "There have been some difficulties between the Ohio Republican Party and the Trump campaign as they've tried to deploy in this crucial state."

Even with the contention between the two Republican groups, Trump is up in Ohio's polls.

"What remains to be seen is if that equals turnout on election day."

Florida

Early turnout is down in the state of Florida, and Gomes thinks that's a result of Trump's message that the voting system is rigged.

"It's very important because 13.5 percent of the electorate are Black voters and politicos are pointing to them to really make a deciding factor. Them getting to turn out is what's going to make this a victory for Hillary Clinton," said Gomes.

Another major voting bloc in the state is Independent voters. With nearly three million registered Independents, they could also swing the election.

"People are disaffected, upset and you're seeing that rise, that surge into the the Independent Party. They usually make up their mind on their own."

These voters are looking at economic issues, are usually younger, and "looking for more options — they have a different world view," said Gomes.

Where Trump and Governor Marco Rubio should look for votes is in the rural areas of the state.

"Central Florida...and really targeting the Latino votes and African American votes...To really trigger them and get them excited to turn out to the polls."

North Carolina

Long-time native North Carolina voters might not call the shots this election, said Dewitt. Transplants may swing the state towards the Clinton.

"There's a town of about 100,000 people outside Raleigh, it's a suburb. It's called Cary...and they call it a 'Containment Area for Relocated Yankees,'" he told Miller. "These are folks who are moving in from...parts of the Northeast and Midwest. And they come here as moderates mostly, maybe a little more left leaning than the typical electorate."

They live in the suburbs of major cities like Raleigh, but also Charlotte and Durham. "And they're really determining the election here in North Carolina" Dewitt said. "This is very much an urban versus rural divide politically in this state and the folks who are making the decision are really these suburban moms or dads who could go either way."

They're swayed by issues rather than candidates. But following the polls, "they were very much against Donald Trump." But they weren't thrilled with Clinton either, which is why President Barack Obama has spent some time in the state. These were voters who loved him in 2012, said Dewitt.

"We're talking about 1 or 2 percent of the electorate here but that's all it takes," to swing the state in either direction, he said.

What could cross this urban, rural divide is the African American vote, which is 25 percent of the electorate.

"How motivated they tend to be when they vote...we're seeing some indication in early voting that maybe the African American population is a little less inclined to vote or a little less motivated to vote and that's why you see...President Obama and other folks who are trying to get that particular group energized," Dewitt pointed out.

Less access to the polls could be a reason for lower turnout. The Supreme Court recently ruled that North Carolina could not implement their voter ID law for this election cycle. Some groups claim this attempt at "voter suppression" is causing lower turnout.

"There are some attempts, according to the NAACP in this state, some voter suppression...About 7,000 voters have been challenged in North Carolina, most of them, two thirds I believe are African American voters."

Dewitt went on to say that a decision about those challenged votes will come down fairly quickly.

"Most people are now wondering if it's a voter suppression and little bit of a motivation, depression issue. But whatever is happening, we're seeing a little bit fewer percentage of African American voters voting."