Stay Curious. Stay Connected.
MailNewsletters♡Donate Now
Sign up
*Password must be at least 8 characters and contain one uppercase letter, one lowercase letter, one number and one symbol.
Already have an account?
By submitting, you consent that you are at least 18 years of age and to receive information about MPR's or APMG entities' programs and offerings. The personally identifying information you provide will not be sold, shared, or used for purposes other than to communicate with you about MPR, APMG entities, and its sponsors. You may opt-out at any time clicking the unsubscribe link at the bottom of any email communication. View our Privacy Policy.
Sign in to your profile
Forgot Password?
New to MPR News?
Welcome back
to news
for you
Reset Password

Enter the username on file and we'll send you a code to reset your password.

Still require assistance or not sure what your User Name is?
Welcome back
to news
for you
Email Verification

A verification code has been emailed to

Still awaiting the code?
NewsCut
Bob Collins

Nate Silver does a victory lap

Go Deeper.

Create an account or log in to save stories.

Like this?

Thanks for liking this story! We have added it to a list of your favorite stories.

nate_silver_538
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com website the morning of Election Day.

Now that we're done with evaluating the media's fascination with polls and the horse race of presidential campaigns, which seem to prevent many substantive stories about candidates from rising above the noise, let's talk about another important election day component that is obsessed with politics as sport: You.

Nate Silver was on The Daily Show last night, taking something of a victory lap because he wasn't as wrong as the other statistical wizards when it came to predicting the race for president.

But make no mistake, Silver was wrong. He was wrong the entire race. He was wrong the day before the election. He was wrong when Florida went for Trump.

Now the statistical experts will tell you he wasn't wrong because he gave Trump a chance of winning and that's the way numbers work. And that's true. Silver wasn't wrong because he never said Donald Trump couldn't win.

But that's not the way people use numbers and that's where those obsessed with numbers -- people who have turned politics into a fantasy football game -- come in.

"I am confused by why people in America are so obsessed with the polls," Trevor Noah commented.

Here's the full clip, which you should watch while you consider this question: Why do you find Silver's predictions valuable in your role in the democratic process? Other than entertainment, what does it contribute to the need for an informed electorate?

nate_silver

Silver tried to claim that his service to America cautions it not to take anything for granted.

But, if you believe some analysts -- and why would you? -- many people didn't turn out to vote because they looked at Silver's work and figured Clinton could win without their help. If true, how is that not a form of voter suppression?

Silver similarly predicted the Chicago Cubs would win the World Series but if the Cleveland Indians had won, he wouldn't have been wrong, the theory goes. Tell that to the bookies, son.

What he should have said is politics isn't a game, don't pay attention to him, don't pay any attention to the polls, and don't spend your time factoring into your evaluation of the candidates how anyone else intends to vote.