Blizzard and winter storm watches posted; radical change by Friday

From November warmth to a blizzard in 24 hours? Only in Minnesota.

Friday's well-advertised snowstorm is still on track to dump heavy, wind-driven snow across much of Minnesota. The latest weather forecast model runs are in scary close agreement that blizzard conditions will develop in western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas late Thursday and Friday.

Blizzard and winter storm watches have been posted for most of western and northern Minnesota, basically west of a Worthington-Brainerd-Finland line.

The heavy snow axis of 6 inches to 12 inches-plus with this storm is most likely to lay out either side of a Madison-Leech Lake-Ely line. High winds sustained at 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph will produce wind-driven snow with visibility under 1/4-mile and blizzard conditions in open country western Minnesota.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...GRANITE FALLS

325 AM CST WED NOV 16 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

* WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH COULD CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW. SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE...INCLUDING DURING BOTH COMMUTES ON FRIDAY.

Deep low pressure storm

The low pressure system moving into Minnesota Friday will wind up quickly and race northeast into Minnesota. A tightly wrapped pressure line means high wind and sideways snow in western and northern Minnesota as the low center races just southeast of the Twin Cities toward eastern Lake Superior Friday. The Euro and GFS are in close agreement, which is always a little scary for us as forecasters. What could possibly go wrong?

Here's NOAA's GFS.

Heavy snow zone stays west of metro?

NOAA's GFS snowfall lays out the heaviest snow band across western and northern Minnesota. Precipitation likely stays mostly rain in the Twin Cities, with just a candy coating to maybe an inch in some sports if the current storm track holds. Any track shift southeast would increase snow potential in the Twin Cities, but that does not look likely at this point. The best chance of a foot of snow centers on Ely.

Here's the view of western Minnesota from the Aberdeen NWS office.

And the view of northern Minnesota from the Duluth NWS.

Snowfall accumulation probabilities center on about an inch for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport in the storm's wake late Friday.

Big factor: Wind

Wind gusts behind the system could reach 50 mph across western Minnesota late Friday. Sustained winds may approach 35 mph in open areas. Batten down the hatches and small pets.

Bottom Line: Expect rain to change to snow late Thursday night across western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. Heavy wind-driven snow continues Friday and extends into northern Minnesota. Snowfall totals of 6 inches to 12 inches-plus are likely, with blizzard conditions in western Minnesota. The Twin Cities will see mostly rain Friday, with rain changing to snow Friday afternoon and a minor snowy coating possible. Temperatures will rapidly plunge into the 30s with wind chills falling to near zero in western Minnesota.

This is a dangerous storm.

Stay tuned for updates in track and intensity.