A warm and wet 2016; snow northern MN today and tonight
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University of Minnesota meteorologist and climatologist Dr. Mark Seeley provided an interesting summary of Minnesota's 2016 weather on Minnesota Public Radio this morning.
Among the information that he shared with our listeners:
Overall on a statewide basis 2016 delivered the 3rd warmest year in history to Minnesota (only
1987 and 2012 were warmer) and the 2nd wettest year (only 1977 was wetter).
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Dr. Seeley also mentioned that 2016 was the first year ever to bring two mega-rain events (1000 square miles covered by 6 inches or greater) to Minnesota.
Widespread flooding resulted from the two mega-rain events. More information on the July flood and August flood is available from the Minnesota State Climatology Office.
A complete summary of our 2016 Minnesota weather will be posted later this morning on Dr. Seeley's Minnesota WeatherTalk blog.
Snow north this afternoon and evening
A low pressure system will track across Minnesota today, with accumulating snows falling over northern Minnesota.
The snow starts in northwestern Minnesota, then spreads eastward as we go through the afternoon and evening. Snow will continue into tonight in many areas.
NOAA’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the expected snowfall pattern:
The color chart on the lower right of the loop refers to the strength of the radar signal returning to the radar, not inches of snow!
Here are some potential snowfall totals, from the Duluth office of the National Weather Service:
A winter weather advisory is in effect from 6 p.m. tonight to 6 a.m. Saturday for several inches of snow along the north shore of Lake Superior:
Some advisory details:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
315 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2016
MNZ020-021-302130-
/O.NEW.KDLH.WW.Y.0026.161231T0000Z-161231T1200Z/
SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TWO HARBORS...SILVER BAY...GRAND MARAIS
315 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2016
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM CST SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY.
* LOCATIONS...TWO HARBORS...SILVER BAY...GRAND MARAIS AND GRAND
PORTAGE.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.
* VISIBILITIES...MAY BE LOWERED IN MORE INTENSE BANDS OF SNOW.
* IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. ALLOW
EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
Northwestern Minnesota also has a winter weather advisory, in effect from noon to midnight:
Some advisory details, from the Grand Forks, ND office of the NWS:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
620 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2016
MNZ004>009-013-310600-
/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.161230T1800Z-161231T0600Z/
KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-
NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HALLOCK...KARLSTAD...LANCASTER...
ROSEAU...WARROAD...GREENBUSH...BAUDETTE...WARREN...STEPHEN...
ARGYLE...NEWFOLDEN...MIDDLE RIVER...GRYGLA...RED LAKE...REDBY...
PONEMAH...THIEF RIVER FALLS
620 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2016
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
* TIMING...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND NOON AND THEN DIMINISH
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
* PRECIPITATION RATES...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM THIS EVENING.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED.
* WINDS / VISIBILITIES...LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING
THE EVENING COMMUTE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN
BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.
A summary of the potential snow amounts, from the NWS:
Weekend looks good
Other than lingering snow in parts of northeastern Minnesota early Saturday morning, our weekend weather is looking pretty good.
Saturday will be breezy, with afternoon temps stuck in the 20s over much of Minnesota, and teens in the north:
I'm expecting plenty of sunshine on Sunday, with highs in the 20s north and some lower 30s in the south:
That's a mild start to 2017, since our average high is 24 degrees in the Twin Cities this time of year.
Temperatures take a sharp drop by mid-week, with single digit highs on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.
Monday snow
NOAA’s Global Forecast System model still shows some snow over Minnesota Monday afternoon into Monday night:
Several inches of snow are possible, and the forecast will be fine-tuned as we get closer to Monday.
We could start with a rain/snow mix over southeastern Minnesota and the Twin Cities Monday afternoon, followed by snow.
This will be interesting to watch as it develops.