Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

A warm and wet 2016; snow northern MN today and tonight

University of Minnesota meteorologist and climatologist Dr. Mark Seeley provided an interesting summary of Minnesota's 2016 weather on Minnesota Public Radio this morning.

Among the information that he shared with our listeners:

Overall on a statewide basis 2016 delivered the 3rd warmest year in history to Minnesota (only

1987 and 2012 were warmer) and the 2nd wettest year (only 1977 was wetter).

Dr. Seeley also mentioned that 2016 was the first year ever to bring two mega-rain events (1000 square miles covered by 6  inches or greater) to Minnesota.

Widespread flooding resulted from the two mega-rain events. More information on the July flood and August flood is available from the Minnesota State Climatology Office.

A complete summary of our 2016 Minnesota weather will be posted later this morning on Dr. Seeley's Minnesota WeatherTalk blog.

Snow north this afternoon and evening

A low pressure system will track across Minnesota today, with accumulating snows falling over northern Minnesota.

The snow starts in northwestern Minnesota, then spreads eastward as we go through the afternoon and evening. Snow will continue into tonight in many areas.

NOAA’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the expected snowfall pattern:

rt1230fcstsfc2
NOAA NAM simulated radar from noon today to 6 a.m. Saturday, via tropicaltidbits.com

The color chart on the lower right of the loop refers to the strength of the radar signal returning to the radar, not inches of snow!

Here are some potential snowfall totals, from the Duluth office of the National Weather Service:

rt1230snow
NWS Duluth

A winter weather advisory is in effect from 6 p.m. tonight to 6 a.m. Saturday for several inches of snow along the north shore of Lake Superior:

rt1230adv2
NWS Duluth

Some advisory details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN

315 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2016

MNZ020-021-302130-

/O.NEW.KDLH.WW.Y.0026.161231T0000Z-161231T1200Z/

SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TWO HARBORS...SILVER BAY...GRAND MARAIS

315 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO

6 AM CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS

EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...TWO HARBORS...SILVER BAY...GRAND MARAIS AND GRAND

PORTAGE.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BE LOWERED IN MORE INTENSE BANDS OF SNOW.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW

WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS

AND REDUCED VISIBILITY...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. ALLOW

EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

Northwestern Minnesota also has a winter weather advisory, in effect from noon to midnight:

rt1230adv4
NWS Grand Forks, ND

Some advisory details, from the Grand Forks, ND office of the NWS:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND

620 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2016

MNZ004>009-013-310600-

/O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.161230T1800Z-161231T0600Z/

KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-

NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HALLOCK...KARLSTAD...LANCASTER...

ROSEAU...WARROAD...GREENBUSH...BAUDETTE...WARREN...STEPHEN...

ARGYLE...NEWFOLDEN...MIDDLE RIVER...GRYGLA...RED LAKE...REDBY...

PONEMAH...THIEF RIVER FALLS

620 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO

MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* TIMING...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND NOON AND THEN DIMINISH

AROUND MIDNIGHT.

* PRECIPITATION RATES...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR

BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM THIS EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES

ARE EXPECTED.

* WINDS / VISIBILITIES...LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING

THE EVENING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL

CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED

ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN

BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

A summary of the potential snow amounts, from the NWS:

rt1230snow2
NWS Grand forks, ND

Weekend looks good

Other than lingering snow in parts of northeastern Minnesota early Saturday morning, our weekend weather is looking pretty good.

Saturday will be breezy, with afternoon temps stuck in the 20s over much of Minnesota, and teens in the north:

rt1231h2

I'm expecting plenty of sunshine on Sunday, with highs in the 20s north and some lower 30s in the south:

rt11h3

That's a mild start to 2017, since our average high is 24 degrees in the Twin Cities this time of year.

Temperatures take a sharp drop by mid-week, with single digit highs on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

Monday snow

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model still shows some snow over Minnesota Monday afternoon into Monday night:

rt1230fcstsfc
NOAA GFS model from noon Monday to 6 a.m.Tuesday, via tropicaltidbits.com

Several inches of snow are possible, and the forecast will be fine-tuned as we get closer to Monday.

We could start with a rain/snow mix over southeastern Minnesota and the Twin Cities Monday afternoon, followed by snow.

This will be interesting to watch as it develops.