Ice storm warnings south; Monday snow for MSP?

• -7 degrees low temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Friday

• 13th subzero day far this season

• 11 days at or below zero last winter at MSP

• 22.7 days average number of days at or below zero at MSP in winter

Winter's halftime

We reach the halfway point of meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) this weekend. So far this has been a fairly average winter across Minnesota. December ran slightly warmer (+1.2F) than average in the Twin Cities. So far January is running 5 degrees colder than average. But that number will move closer to average next week with temperatures peaking 10 to 15 degrees warmer than average for at least four or five days. You local bank thermometer may blink 40 degrees a week from Saturday.

Time to stock up on blue juice for the car.

Weekend ice storm

A significant ice storm is still on track from Oklahoma through Kansas, Missouri, Iowa and possibly southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin. If you or anyone you know is planning travel south along Interstate 35 to Interstate 80 or east on Interstate 94, give them a heads up. Many Midwest highways are going to look more like a skating rinks the next few days. Ice covered trees and power lines may give way under the strain, and significant power outages are likely.

Slow moving low

Here's the sequence of events over the next four days. A slow moving low-pressure system will push freezing rain and snow north this weekend. Warm air aloft, and subfreezing surface temps mean rain will freeze on contact from Kansas and Nebraska through Missouri. Iowa and eventually southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin. It should be all snow in the Twin Cities Monday.

Ice storm warnings

Ice storm warnings cover an expanding chunk of real estate in the Midwest this weekend.

Widespread ice accumulations of one-quarter inch to one-half inch look likely. Some locations in Kansas and Missouri may pick up close to 1 inch of dangerously heavy ice accumulation. That's enough to snap trees and power lines with little help from the wind.

Model output ice accumulations have shifted south just a bit, that may be good news for southeast Minnesota. But significant icing still looks likely across Iowa.

Twin Cities: Monday snow

In the Twin Cities, most of the precipitation should fall as snow Monday into Tuesday. The early read for the Twin Cities suggests a big snowfall gradient from northwest (less) to southeast (more); an overall range of 1 inch to 5 inches for the metro, with heaviest totals in the southeast and east metro into western Wisconsin. Several inches may pile up to the southeast toward Rochester,  Minn., La Crosse, Wis., and Eau Claire into central Wisconsin.

$15 billion weather disasters in 2016

Last year was a costly and extreme weather year in the United States.

NOAA elaborates:

The year 2016 was an unusual year, as there were 15 weather and climate events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States. These events included drought, wildfire, 4 inland flood events, 8 severe storm events, and a tropical cyclone event (see map below). Cumulatively, these 15 events led to 138 fatalities and caused $46.0 billion in total, direct costs. The 2016 total was the 2nd highest annual number of U.S. billion-dollar disasters, behind the 16 events that occurred in 2011.

Perhaps most surprising were the 4 separate billion-dollar inland flood (i.e., non-tropical) events during 2016, doubling the previous record, as no more than 2 billion-dollar inland flood events have occurred in a year since 1980. Three of these flood events were clustered in Louisiana and Texas between March and August, collectively causing damage approaching $15.0 billion. This is a notable record, further highlighted by the numerous other record flooding events that impacted the U.S. in 2016.