January thaw, day 4, and more on the way

Evening update of dense fog advisories at 6:30 p.m.

The National Weather Service has added much of central Minnesota to the dense fog advisory for overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. More changes might come as the evening and night progress.

January thaw continues

Of course, the price we are paying for being able to wear our lighter winter jackets, in addition to the lack of good snow for winter sports, is abundant slush, lingering ice and a low overcast of featureless clouds. A southerly flow of unseasonably mild and moist air can be blamed or credited, depending on your point of view.

Precipitation has been light and scattered for the most part. Areas of light rain and snow continued to fall in northern Minnesota late Friday afternoon.

Mild temperatures well into next week

More thick fog tonight

The moistness of the air mass along with added water vapor from snow that melts during the day often leads to fog when temperatures cool just a bit to the dew point overnight. The National Weather Service has posted more dense fog advisories for tonight into Saturday morning, mainly for southern Minnesota, approximately south of a line from Ortonville to New Prague to Red Wing. Visibilities have already fallen to around a quarter of a mile in many areas.

Some areas of spotty rain, snow, light freezing rain or even a mixture of precipitation types will continue in the far north tonight. Snow is most likely in the higher elevations.

Saturday

The atmospheric moist layer will deepen on Saturday and an area of uplift will cross our state. Areas of rain and drizzle are likely. Northern Minnesota will experience a mixture of precipitation types with not only rain and drizzle, but also areas of snow, freezing rain and freezing drizzle. Freezing rain might be a problem for much of the day along the North Shore.

High temperatures should be from 35 to about 40.

Meanwhile, recent days have produced numerous thunderstorms, some of them severe, in the Deep South. The stage might be set for significant severe weather again in that area on Saturday as the Storm Prediction Center has identified two areas of enhanced risk for severe weather.

In addition to the risk of severe storms in the South, flash flooding is a definite possibility in Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

Sunday

Sunday will be dry for most of Minnesota. Some light rain and snow showers probably will break out across the northern half of the state.

The severe weather risk will spread farther east to the Carolinas and all the way down through Florida.

Three-day precipitation

While most of our precipitation the next few says will be light, the forecast map of 3-day precipitation beginning at 6:00 p.m. today shows heavy rain in the Southeast and up into the Mid-Atlantic states as well as in Arizona including Phoenix. A few feet of heavy mountain snows will fall in California while unusually-heavy rain is forecast for California's coastal areas including San Diego.

Mid-week snow?

Forecast models are predicting a snow event next Wednesday.  The track is uncertain at this early date, of course, but I think it will impact mainly southern Minnesota. The latest model runs have weakened the storm and have pushed the axis of a few inches of snow south closer to the Iowa border.  Temperatures near freezing are likely to produce a wet, sticky snow.

How long mild?

Next week should remain warmer than average through at least Friday. Sharply colder temperatures are likely to arrive from the north beginning about Sunday, January 29. On Monday, January 30, the Twin Cities might have a high near 10 courtesy of a bright, fresh snowpack and a northerly flow.