Messy tonight; Will winter stagger to the finish line?

The winter of 2016-17 is fighting to cling to respectability across Minnesota.

The first two thirds of meteorological winter (December-February) are in the books. So far temperatures are running warmer than average across Minnesota this winter. Snow cover has been hard to come by, and even harder to keep around as thaws driven by mild Pacific air masses sweep over the region.

Here's a snapshot of temperatures at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport so far this meteorological winter.

• +1.2 degrees - December temps vs. average

• +5.3 degrees - January temps vs. average

• +3.25 - overall temps so far for meteorological winter

Looking at the longer range maps, it appears winter may be sputtering to the finish line this month. Another shot of mild Pacific air gushes our way by Friday with temperatures back into the 40s. In the meantime, the maps attempt to deliver a dose of winter weather to Minnesota through Tuesday.

Snowy north

Snow is falling on northern Minnesota today. Low pressure slides toward Chicago tonight. The Twin Cities remains mostly dry and quiet today, then rides the southern edge of the precipitation zone overnight.

It should be warm enough for mostly drizzle in the Twin Cities tonight, with some freezing drizzle around midnight into early Tuesday morning. The system zips east Tuesday, with snow ending and a shot of windy and colder air in tow.

The system lays down a few inches of snow across northern Minnesota. A light dusting reaches as far south as the Twin Cities Tuesday morning.

Tonight's snow will freshen up northern Minnesota. It's been hard to keep snow around in the central and south this winter.  There's still plenty of snow to play in up north, but the latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration snow cover map shows some big holes in snow cover across central and southern Minnesota.

Long range: Mild February finish

More Pacific air gushes into Minnesota by Friday. Temps run into the 40s once again, and the longer range map are cranking our significantly warmer than average temperatures as we move deeper into February.

The upper air maps have been producing a pattern that looks more like late March or early April by the weekend of Feb. 18-19. The polar front jet stream, which historically screams over Minnesota in February, is long gone up in Canada and an unseasonably mild Pacific flow dominates this projection for Feb. 20.

It's too early for a high degree of confidence yet, but  a few runs from NOAA's Global Forecast System 16-day temperature output have been cranking out highs in the 50s for the Twin Cities in the days surrounding the weekend of Feb. 18-19.

If this set of long range maps come to pass, the winter of 2016-17 may be about to sputter to the finish line.

Stay tuned.