Lovely today, thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday
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Gone is the crisp northwest wind from the Canadian prairies. It has been traded in for a southerly flow that will become breezy Tuesday afternoon. Sunshine and a south wind will warm our temperatures farther into the 70s just about statewide.
The Twin Cities should have a high temperature around 78 Tuesday afternoon. Only the North Shore will remain cool, thanks to airflow off chilly Lake Superior.
Thunderstorms are likely tonight and Wednesday
A weather disturbance advancing from our west will eventually fire off quite a batch of thunderstorms across the eastern Dakotas later Tuesday. Thunderstorms are likely to reach western Minnesota with heavy rain and a marginal or slight risk of severe weather around midnight Tuesday.
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Thunderstorms should reach the Twin Cities area late tonight, probably around 4 a.m. By then they might be weakening, but could still be waker-uppers.
Forecast models differ as to when thunderstorm redevelopment might occur tomorrow. The most likely scenario seems to be that daytime heating will fire up another round of storms Wednesday afternoon, mainly across eastern Minnesota.
The Storm Prediction Center has posted a slight risk of severe storms for the southeastern corner of Minnesota including Rochester and Winona and a marginal risk for areas in and around the Twin Cities. The best chance of severe weather later Wednesday probably will be from Kansas and Iowa into southern Wisconsin.
Peaceful Thursday
Thursday should be a quiet day across Minnesota. A cold front will lay out south of our state and trigger storms with heavy rain and severe potential from Kansas and Nebraska to northern Ohio.
Then more unsettled weather
An unsettled period will bring us scatterings of showers and thunderstorms from Thursday night through Sunday, but with comfortable temperatures and humidities.
Turning hotter in July
July is on its way and will begin on Saturday, so heat and humidity cannot be too far behind. Long-range forecasts are for our temperatures, and eventually dew points, to climb to more seasonal levels. The eight to 14 day temperature outlook for July 4-10 calls for the likelihood of warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the country including Minnesota.
