Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Shower and thunderstorm chances; nice weather on Saturday

Head north if you want some nice weather Friday afternoon.

There will be plenty of clouds over central and southern Minnesota.

Showers are expected over much of southern Minnesota and part of central Minnesota this Friday morning and early Friday afternoon.

Another batch of showers, and a few thunderstorms, could spread into Minnesota later this afternoon and continue into Friday evening and Friday night.

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk of severe weather today and tonight for southwestern Minnesota and parts of west-central and south-central Minnesota:

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NWS Storm Prediction Center

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Temperature trends

Friday afternoon highs will be mainly in the 70s across Minnesota.

On Saturday, some spots in northeastern Minnesota will see 70s, with 80s elsewhere in the state:

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Northwestern Minnesota could top out in the 70s on Sunday, with 80s over most of Minnesota:

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Looking ahead, Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to be in the lower 80s on Monday, followed by upper 70s Tuesday through Friday.

Weekend rain chance

Saturday should be dry over most of Minnesota.

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.

In southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area, the rain chance on Sunday would tend to be mainly from late afternoon into Sunday evening and Sunday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday and Sunday evening:

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NOAA GFS model precipitation rate Saturday night through Sunday night, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the rainfall rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.

Tornado survey results

National Weather Service survey crews confirmed that there were seven tornadoes in southern Minnesota late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

Here's the report, from the Twin Cities office of the NWS:

Public Information Statement

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

519 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 08/16/2017 TORNADO EVENT...

.OVERVIEW...A band of heavy rain with embedded tornadoes lifted

north through Minnesota during the afternoon and evening of

August 16 2017. NWS Damage Assessment Teams have confirmed 7

tornadoes occurred, see the details below.

.NICOLLET TORNADO 1...

Rating: EF-0

Estimated peak wind: 75-80 mph

Path length /Statute/: 1.5 miles

Path width /Maximum/: 75 yards

Fatalities: 0

Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017

Start time: 446 PM CDT

Start location: 4 S Nicollet, MN

Start Lat/Lon: 44.2368 / -94.1865

End date: 08_16_2017

End time: 452 PM CDT

End location: 2 S Nicollet, MN

End_lat/lon: 44.2561 / -94.1945

SURVEY_SUMMARY: Tornado developed south of Nicollet and

lifted north northwest. It caused mainly tree damage, but

did hit a farmstead and damaged a garage and grove of

trees.

.NICOLLET TORNADO 2...

Rating: EF-0

Estimated peak wind: 55-60 mph

Path length /Statute/: 0.6 miles

Path width /Maximum/: 25 yards

Fatalities: 0

Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017

Start time: 504 PM CDT

Start location: 5 S Nicollet, MN

Start Lat/Lon: 44.2296 / -94.1783

End date: 08_16_2017

End time: 509 PM CDT

End location: 4 S Nicollet, MN

End_lat/lon: 44.2380 / -94.1783

SURVEY_SUMMARY: A few minutes later another tornado

developed south of Nicollet and lifted north. It was

observed by a local citizen, and caused mainly crops

and tree damage.

.NEW SWEDEN...

Rating: EF-1

Estimated peak wind: 100-105 mph

Path length /Statute/: 3.1 miles

Path width /Maximum/: 75 yards

Fatalities: 0

Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017

Start time: 535 PM CDT

Start location: 8 S Gaylord, MN

Start Lat/Lon: 44.4380 / -94.1962

End date: 08_16_2017

End time: 547 PM CDT

End location: 6 SSW Gaylord, MN

End_lat/lon: 44.4704 / -94.2461

SURVEY_SUMMARY: The strongest tornado of the day

developed in northern Nicollet county and lifted into

Sibley county. This was a multi-vortex tornado. Video

shows one vortex struck a farmstead directly

causing significant damage to trees and out buildings.

.WINTHROP #1 TORNADO...

Rating: EF-0

Estimated peak wind: 80 mph

Path length /Statute/: 0.25 miles

Path width /Maximum/: 75 yards

Fatalities: 0

Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017

Start time: 626 PM CDT

Start location: 4 ENE Winthrop, MN

Start Lat/Lon: 44.5719 / -94.3023

End date: 08_16_2017

End time: 626 PM CDT

End location: 4 ENE Winthrop, MN

End_lat/lon: 44.5719 / -94.3023

SURVEY_SUMMARY: Tornado developed 4 miles ENE of Winthrop and

traveled about 1/4 mile to the north northwest. It flattened

some corn, uprooted a tree, and caused other tree damage.

.WINTHROP #2 TORNADO...

Rating: EF-0

Estimated peak wind: 80 mph

Path length /Statute/: 0.16 miles

Path width /Maximum/: 25 yards

Fatalities: 0

Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017

Start time: 633 PM CDT

Start location: 3 NNE Winthrop, MN

Start Lat/Lon: 44.5795 / -94.3457

End date: 08_16_2017

End time: 633 PM CDT

End location: 3 NNE Winthrop, MN

End_lat/lon: 44.5795 / -94.3457

SURVEY_SUMMARY: A tornado developed 3 NNE of Winthrop, flattened

corn, destroyed a structurally compromised barn and produced some

tree damage.

.NEW PRAGUE TORNADO...

Rating: EF-0

Estimated peak wind: 55-60 mph

Path length /Statute/: 0.5 miles

Path width /Maximum/: 10 yards

Fatalities: 0

Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017

Start time: 705 PM CDT

Start location: 2 S New Prague, MN

Start Lat/Lon: 44.5359 / -93.5852

End date: 08_16_2017

End time: 708 PM CDT

End location: 2 SW New Prague, MN

End_lat/lon: 44.5435 / -93.5902

SURVEY_SUMMARY: A weak circulation develop south of New

Prague and moved across the far southwest part of town.

There was minor tree damage which matched up with radar.

.LESTER PRAIRIE TORNADO...

Rating: EF-0

Estimated peak wind: 75 mph

Path length /Statute/: Brief

Path width /Maximum/: 30 yards

Fatalities: 0

Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017

Start time: 808 PM CDT

Start location: Lester Prairie, MN

Start Lat/Lon: 44.8804 / -94.0469

End date: 08_16_2017

End time: 808 PM CDT

End location: Lester Prairie, MN

End_lat/lon: 44.8804 / -94.0469

SURVEY_SUMMARY: A brief EF-0 tornado on the south side of Lester

Prairie. It uprooted some trees and broke many tree limbs.

 

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale Classifies

Tornadoes into the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph

EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph

EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph

EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph

EF4...Violent...166 To 200 mph

EF5...Violent...>200 mph

NOTE:

The information in this statement is PRELIMINARY and subject to

change pending final review of the events and publication in

NWS Storm Data.

The NWS also released maps of the tornado tracks and the heavy rainfall that occurred over much of central and southern Minnesota Wednesday and Wednesday night.

According to the Twin Cities office of the NWS there have been 35 tornadoes in Minnesota so far this year, and our annual average is 40 tornadoes.

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Afternoon update:

The Twin Cities NWS office confirmed this afternoon that a tornado touched down Wednesday evening August 16, near Prior Lake:

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NWS Twin Cities

That brings our Wednesday total to 8 tornadoes in Minnesota.

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Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.