Sunny and pleasant now; is “Harvey” the next big weather story?

Weather perfection?

I get a lot of supportive emails and messages for our weather coverage at MPR News. They are very much appreciated. Every so often I get the critical email from a listeners. They are also appreciated.

Sometimes if I describe a day like yesterday or today as "perfect" or "beautiful" some well-meaning listener will take me to task for editorializing the weather. I get that one person's 'beautiful' day might be not the best for another.

But those who know me know I call things as I see them. I'm not one to dance around what is essentially a collective truth. The overwhelming majority of Minnesotans, and indeed people on planet earth would call today's weather "beautiful." So for me that's an accurate weather description. Seriously how is sunny and 76 degrees like yesterday not a slice of weather heaven? We live in a climate that can kill you at least 40 days a year.

As always on days like this, the weather complaints department is down the hall on the left. Way down. Always open. Tomorrow.

Spotty showers tonight

A weak upper air disturbance generates spotty light showers across Minnesota tonight into early Thursday. NOAA's HRRR model captures the essence of shower bands zipping southeast into Thursday morning.

Too cool for school

Yes it does feel like September out there. This weekend looks considerably cooler and wetter than last weekend. Much of Minnesota may not climb out of the 60s Friday through Sunday. I expect to see a school bus pull up in front of the Weather Lab any minute.

Warm Labor Day weekend?

We get back a few degrees next week as warmer temperatures return. The upper air pattern still favors warmer temperatures by Labor Day weekend.

NOAA's 16-day temperature guidance still cranks out highs in the 80s Labor Day weekend. Again, meteorologist know these longer range products are more accurate with temperatures trends than specific daily forecasts. But highs in the 80s seem like a good bet for Labor Day weekend at this point. We're not done with summer-like temps just yet.

Harvey returns?

NOAA's National Hurricane Center expects to begin issuing advisories on Harvey again today. You don't often see a 100% chance for development from NHC.

Most models still favor strengthening and a track toward the Texas coast by Friday.

Stalled storm?

The big danger here is that Harvey may hit the coast with hurricane force winds and surge, then stall as a blocking pattern kicks in. Here's NOAA's GFS model version of events.

If this solution occurs the resulting rainfall totals could be at least 10" to 20" and the potential for widespread, even catastrophic flooding could develop. Right now the heavy rainfall bull's eye falls near Houston and Galveston in many scenarios.

We could be looking at the next major weather story and potentially the next billion-dollar weather disaster.

Stay tuned.