Bye-bye meteorological summer, hello major Hurricane Irma

Excuse me while I savor the last few hours of meteorological summer. I've been in 'summer denial' now for about 3 weeks. I've been accidentally on purpose ignoring my fall chores list. Maybe I'll even catch a movie that captures this seasonal transition. American Graffiti works for me.

In many ways Labor Day is like New Year's Day at the Weather Lab. Oddly, I look at fall as a time of renewal. Back to school. An opportunity to refocus my work.  Another chance to get stronger, leaner, faster.

Meteorological fall begins September 1st.  Oh wait. That's in about 6 hours. So I'll toss out that phrase we often hear in Minnesota this time of year.

"Oh well, it's been a good summer."

Meteorological summer 2017

Meteorological summer 2017 (Jun-Aug) goes in the books at midnight. June started out warm, with a cooling trend as summer progressed. Here's a look at temperatures vs. average at MSP Airport this summer.

• June +2.5 degrees

• July +1.5 degrees

• August -2.3 degrees

This summer was wet in much of Minnesota, with some drought in the northwest. MSP Airport recorded 13.1" of rain this summer. That's 1.63" above average.

MPR commentator Dr. Mark Seeley has some additional details on our wet August in this week's Weather Talk.

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Topic:  August Climate Summary

Mean August temperature values from around the state were generally 2 to 4 degrees F cooler than normal.  Only the second cooler than normal month in 2017 (May was the other).  Extreme temperatures for the month ranged from 93 degrees F at Granite Falls (Yellow Medicine County) on August 1st, and just 30 degrees F at Embarrass, Brimson, and Crane Lake on the 25th.  Some observers in St Louis, Lake, Cook, and Koochiching Counties reported frosts during the month.  Minnesota did not report the nation's lowest on any date this month.

The most noteworthy climate attribute of August was the rainfall.  Overall the statewide average rainfall was over 5 inches, ranking as the 11th wettest month of August in state history.  Some western and southern communities reported their wettest August in history with total rainfall values over 10 inches.  Redwood Falls topped the state network reports with over 13 inches.  They reported the largest ever 1-day rainfall on August 17th in state history with a measurement of 8.12 inches.  In addition over 40 climate stations in the state reported at least one new daily rainfall record during the month.

Taste of fall next week

The weather maps must be looking at the calendar. A summer-like Labor Day weekend gives way to a brief shot of cooler air next week.

Summer flashback late next week

The upper air pattern favors another warm up as we move deeper into September. Summer-like days may not be gone just yet.

String of 80s?

If the above pattern holds, it;s going to get warm again. I'm not sure about 90, but a string of days in the 80s seems reasonable at this point. I'll take it.

Smoky skies

Watching Irma

I'll spare the drama over Irma for now. I think we could all use a couple days to come up for air after Harvey. But next week will be critical. One thing seem certain. Irma will be a monster storm and could reach Cat 5.

Will Irma track harmlessly out to sea? Or will she make a beeline for the USA the weekend of September 9-10?

Place your bets.

It's still too early to call Irma's eventual track. But many models suggest a potential U.S. threat about 10-11 days out.

Stay tuned.