A summery Sunday; cooler on Labor Day
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Our average high temperature is now 77 degrees in the Twin Cities.
We're expecting a Twin Cities high in the upper 80s Sunday afternoon.
Now that's a summery flashback!
Highs in the 80s will be common across most of Minnesota Sunday afternoon, with some 70s in the northeast.
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I wouldn't be surprised if a few spots in west-central or northwestern Minnesota top 90 degrees.
Rain chances
North-central and northeastern Minnesota could see some scattered showers and thunderstorms anytime from about mid to late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather in north-central and northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday night:
Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.
Any watches or warnings can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and they will also be posted on the MPR News live weather blog.
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Afternoon update
The Storm Prediction Center now indicates a slight risk of severe weather for parts of north-central and northeastern Minnesota Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening/night:
Scattered severe weather is possible in the slight risk (yellow) area, and an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible in the marginal risk (dark green) area.
The best chance of a strong to severe thunderstorm in north-central and northeastern Minnesota would tend to be sometime between about 6 p.m. Sunday and 10 p.m. Sunday.
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On Labor Day, Minnesota could see some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
Scattered is the key word.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern on Labor Day:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.
Temperature trends
Cooler air spreads into Minnesota Monday and Tuesday.
Highs on Labor Day will be in the 60s over northern Minnesota, with 70s central and south:
Most of Minnesota will see highs in the 60s on Tuesday, with some 50s in the northeast:
Twin Cities highs will be in the 60s Wednesday, then back to the 70s Thursday and Friday.
Mid-week low temps will be very cool, with 40s over most of Minnesota early Wednesday morning, and even some spotty upper 30s possible in the far north.
Hurricane Irma
Hurricane Irma has strengthened to Category 3 level and has max winds of 115 mph early Sunday morning.
The center of Irma could track just north of Puerto Rico Wednesday night:
Here's the Sunday morning Hurricane Irma update from the National Hurricane Center.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017
...IRMA'S INTENSITY CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE AND IS BACK TO
CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IRMA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 47.5W
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Irma.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 47.5 West. Irma is moving
toward the west-southwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this course at
a slightly slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn
toward the west is forecast on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is forecast through Monday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).
After 5 days, the track of Irma has many possibilities:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/904296512708108288
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.