Mainly 70s for Labor Day; Hurricane Irma update

Our  Labor Day will feature highs in the 70s over southern and central Minnesota, with 60s to the north.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible anytime this Labor Day in northern Minnesota.

Central and southern Minnesota could see some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours.

The key word is "scattered".

If any severe weather warnings are issued, you can hear them on the Minnesota Public Radio network, and you can read about them on the MPR news live weather blog.

In the Twin Cities metro area,  the chance of scattered Labor Day showers and thunderstorms would tend to be mainly from mid-afternoon to about sunset.

Eastern Minnesota could also see some scattered showers Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Cool Tuesday and Wednesday

Highs will only be in the 60s over most on Minnesota on Tuesday:

Some spots in the far north will only see upper 50s.

Most of Minnesota will have highs in the 60s on Wednesday:

Temps rebound on Thursday.

The Twin Cities metro area highs should be around 70 on Thursday, mid 70s Friday, then upper 70s next weekend.

Our average high temperature in the Twin Cities is now 76 degrees.

Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Irma is a major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph this Labor Day morning.

Hurricane watches have been issue for the northern Leeward Islands.

The center of Irma could track very close to Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night:

Here's the Monday morning update on Hurricane Irma, from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN

Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 20A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017

800 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS IRMA A LITTLE STRONGER...

 

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.8N 52.6W

ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten

* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before

the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,

conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and

U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should

monitor the progress of Irma. Additional hurricane and tropical

storm watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of

this area later this morning or this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near

latitude 16.8 North, longitude 52.6 West. Irma is moving toward the

west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is

expected later today, followed by a west-northwestward turn late

Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move closer

to the Leeward Islands through Tuesday and then be near the northern

Leeward Islands Tuesday night.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the

maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)

with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is

forecast through Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from

the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140

miles (220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data received by

the reconnaissance aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by

Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late

Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will begin affecting the northern

Leeward Islands today. These swells are likely to cause life-

threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office.

Beyond 5 days, there is more uncertainty about Irma's track.

Computer models show several possible tracks that involve Florida:

The Twin Cities NWS is among the U.S. sites that will launch more frequent upper air balloons over the next several days.

The additional data about the atmosphere will assist the National Hurricane Center:

Hurricane names

In case you are wondering how hurricanes are named, here's some information from the World Meteorological Organization:

Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms have been named from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center. They are now maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. The original name lists featured only women's names. In 1979, men's names were introduced and they alternate with the women's names. Six lists are used in rotation.

It is not official yet, but you won't see another hurricane named Harvey.

According to WMO policy:

The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO Tropical Cyclone Committees (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it. Infamous storm names such as Haiyan (Philippines, 2013), Sandy (USA, 2012), Katrina (USA, 2005), Mitch (Honduras, 1998) and Tracy (Darwin, 1974) are examples for this.

Here are the 6 lists of hurricane names that are currently in use:

The 2017 list will be used again in 2023, with Harvey replaced by another name.

Hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean and other parts of the world use different lists of names.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.