Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Florida is in Irma’s path this weekend; quiet in Minnesota

Hurricane Irma is a Category 5 hurricane moving just north of Hispaniola this Thursday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph.

Irma brought catastrophic damage to Antigua and Barbuda Tuesday and Tuesday night:

The center of Irma moved just north of Puerto Rico Wednesday night:

Irma's circulation this Thursday morning:

A larger view, using infrared sensors:

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NOAA Hurricane Irma infrared loop

Florida is bracing for a hit from Irma this weekend:

Here's the Thursday morning Irma update from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN

Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 33A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017

800 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...EYE OF IRMA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN COAST

OF HISPANIOLA...

...HEADING FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

 

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.1N 69.0W

ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with

Haiti

* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le

Mole St. Nicholas

* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

* Central Bahamas

* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the

southern border with Haiti

* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

* Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and

property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as

Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. A Hurricane

Watch will likely be issued later this morning for portions of

southern Florida and the Florida Keys.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located

near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 69.0 West. Irma is moving

toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general

motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed

for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma

should continue to move just north of the coast of Hispaniola today,

be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by this

evening, and then be near the Central Bahamas by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 180 mph (285 km/h) with

higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely

during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a

powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185

miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force

Hurricane Hunter plane is 921 mb (27.20 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and

large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area

near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the

surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft

Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft

Northwestern Bahamas...4 to 7 ft

Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft

Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the

hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today,

with tropical storm conditions beginning in the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in

the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later

today with tropical storm conditions expected within the next

several hours. These conditions will spread into the Central

Bahamas by tonight or early Friday.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the

watch area in Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are

expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba tonight. Hurricane

conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and

Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain

accumulations through Saturday:

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...An

additional 2 to 4 inches.

Much of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches,

isolated 20 inches.

Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,

isolated 15 inches.

Eastern and Central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Southern Haiti...1 to 4 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern Leeward

Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,

the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican

Republic, and they should start affecting portions of the southeast

coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells

are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

The potential track of Irma looks like this:

rt0907irmatrk
National Hurricane Center

The cone shows the possible tracks of Irma's center.

If Irma takes the track near the Florida Keys and Miami, catastrophic damage would occur in parts of south Florida.

Cool in Minnesota

Thursday highs will range from the upper 50s in northeastern Minnesota to the upper 70s in the southwest.

Friday's highs will be cool as well, with mostly 60s in northern and central Minnesota, some lower 70s south.

70s expand to cover much of Minnesota on Saturday:

rt0909h

70s will also be widespread on Sunday:

rt09010h

Our average high is now 75 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.

Drought update

The latest update from U.S. Drought Monitor shows that the worst drought conditions are in eastern Montana and western North Dakota:

rt0907drt
U.S. Drought Monitor/USDA/NOAA/University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Northwestern Minnesota continues to see moderate drought:

rt0907drtmn
U.S. Drought Monitor/USDA/NOAA/University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Significant rain is not expected in northwestern Minnesota in the next several days.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.