Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Irma hits Florida; mild with a shower chance in Minnesota

Hurricane Irma was a Category 4 (major) hurricane Sunday morning as her eye approached the Florida Keys:

rt0910irmasat
Hurricane Irma infrared loop early Sunday morning, courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Irma's center was 20 miles east-southeast of Key West, Florida at 8 a.m. EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.

Here's the Sunday morning Irma update from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN

Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 45A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017

800 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...CENTER OF IRMA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE LOWER FLORIDA

KEYS...

 

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.5N 81.5W

ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA

ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF NAPLES FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for

the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa

Clara.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet

* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the

Ochlockonee River

* Florida Keys

* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian

Pass

* Florida Keys

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida Bay

* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and La Habana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line

* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Bimini and Grand Bahama

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States

should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your

national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located

near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 81.5 West. Irma is moving toward

the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and an increase in

forward speed is expected later today, with that motion continuing

through Monday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should move

over the Lower Florida Keys shortly, and then move near or over the

west coast of the Florida Peninsula later today through tonight.

Irma should then move inland over northern Florida and southwestern

Georgia Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher

gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale. While weakening is forecast, Irma is expected

to remain a powerful hurricane while it moves through the Florida

Keys and near the west coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220

miles (350 km). A wind gust to 89 mph (143 km/h) was recently

measured at the Key West National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 72 mph (117 km/h)

was recently reported at Tamiami Airport in West Kendall, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb (27.43 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is

expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft

Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft

Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...

5 to 10 ft

Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...

5 to 8 ft

North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...

3 to 5 ft

South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft

Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft

Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...2 to 4 ft

North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking

waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the

following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the

north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be

accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the

hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through

this morning. Hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of

the Florida Keys and southern Florida. Winds affecting the upper

floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than

those near ground level. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions

are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning

areas through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the

watch area in the Northwestern Bahamas today.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain

accumulations through Wednesday:

Western Cuba...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

The Florida Keys...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

The southern Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20

inches.

The remainder of the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to

12 inches, isolated 16 inches.

The rest of Georgia, eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western

South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 6 inches, isolated

10 inches.

Eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across

southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula.

THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane

passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the

eye moves away.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of

the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-

threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

The  National Hurricane Center shows the center of Irma moving along or near Florida's west coast Sunday and Sunday night:

rt0910irmatrk
National Hurricane Center

Hurricane force winds extend 80 miles from the center of Irma, so much of Florida will see extensive damage from winds and storm surge.

Some areas will see catastrophic damage.

Almost all of Florida is under a hurricane warning, the western part of the Florida panhandle has a tropical storm warning.

Per the morning NHC Irma update, the storm surge could bring water 10 to 15 feet above ground level from Cape Sable to Captiva. 5 to 8 feet above ground level in Tampa. A storm surge 5 to 10 feet above ground level was forecast for the Florida Keys.

rt0910surge
NWS Key West, Florida

Storm surge warnings cover most of the Florida coastline, and extend up to South Carolina:

rt0910surge2
NOAA/NWS/NHC

Most people pay attention to the winds of hurricanes, but we should also pay attention to the storm surge:

Hurricanes also bring heavy rains.

Hurricane Irma could dump one to two feet of rain over parts of Florida from Sunday through Sunday night and Monday.

A few tornadoes are also possible.

Landfall in the Florida Keys

The National Hurricane Center announced Hurricane Irma landfall at 9:10 a.m. EDT:

rt0910land
National Hurricane Center

Irma is the second major hurricane to make landfall in the United States this season:

Mild in Minnesota

Minnesota could see some scattered showers from time to time as we go through Sunday and Sunday evening.

An isolated thunderstorm is also possible.

Minnesota highs will be mostly in the 70s Sunday afternoon, with a few spots in the south topping 80.

Lower 80s are expected in southern Minnesota and parts of central Minnesota on Monday:

rt0911h

Most of northern Minnesota will have Monday highs in the 70s.

Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to be in the lower 80s Monday through Thursday, then in the upper 70s Friday.

Our average high is now 74 degrees in the Twin Cities.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.