Frost possible early Monday; Ireland braces for Ophelia’s winds

Skies will clear overnight Sunday night, and winds will be light.

Low temps late Sunday night/early Monday morning will drop into the 30s over most of Minnesota, with some 20s possible in the northeast.

Areas of frost are expected in Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin, and there could even be some areas of frost in the Twin Cities metro area early Monday morning.

You might want to cover tender plants, or bring your potted plants indoors if you want them to survive the chill.

Temperature trends

Temperatures rebound nicely Monday afternoon, with Minnesota highs mostly in the lower 60s:

The northeast could top out in the upper 50s.

On Tuesday, 70s return to parts of southern Minnesota:

I wouldn't be surprised if a few spots in the Twin Cities metro area hit 70 degrees on Tuesday, which would be well above our average Twin Cities October 17 high temp of 58 degrees.

Twin Cities highs are expected to be in the lower 70s Wednesday and Thursday, with mid 70s possible on Friday.

A lot of sunshine is expected this week, then the chance of showers returns Friday night into Saturday.

Hurricane Ophelia

Hurricane Ophelia had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph late Sunday afternoon, and was moving to the north-northeast.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Ophelia is expected to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone Sunday night, and could bring hurricane force winds to parts of Ireland on Monday.

Here's NHC's projected path for Ophelia:

And here's the National Hurricane Center's Sunday afternoon update:

BULLETIN

Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 27

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017

500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT...

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...44.6N 13.3W

ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM NE OF THE AZORES

ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,

and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued

by the UK Met Office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was

located near latitude 44.6 North, longitude 13.3 West. Ophelia is

moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this

general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the

forecast track, the center of Ophelia will cross over Ireland on

Monday, however strong winds and rain will extend far from the

center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher

gusts. Ophelia is expected to be a hurricane-force post-tropical

cyclone when it nears the coast of Ireland on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles

(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern

Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward

across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are

expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday

afternoon. Strong winds will then spread inland across the

Ireland and parts of the UK into Monday night. Preparations to

protect lives and property should be nearing completion.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains

are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds

indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be

even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to

3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100

mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across

eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)

or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce

significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the

center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,

the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

Has Ireland ever seen a hurricane?

Hurricanes usually lose their tropical characteristics before they move close to Ireland.

One exception was Hurricane Debbie, in 1961:

According to the Irish Times, Debbie caused 11 deaths in Ireland in September of 1961:

Hurricane Debbie hit Ireland on the morning of Saturday September 16th, 1961, and caused the deaths of 11 people.

It had already caused a plane crash and the deaths of 60 people off the Cape Verde Islands when it began moving in Ireland’s direction.

According to Met Éireann, winds gusting over 110 miles per hour or 177km/h were recorded as the centre passed close to the southwest coast. And a gust of 113 miles per hour, almost 182km/h, was recorded at Malin Head, the joint highest gust ever recorded in Ireland, and the same as one recorded at Foynes, Co Limerick on January 18th, 1945, before the instrument pen went off the chart.

Damage to property was extensive over the western half of the country.

Although the winds on Monday probably won't be as strong as those seen with Hurricane Debbie, Ireland is bracing for their worst storm in 5o years.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.