Watching weekend snow potential

It's typical to see a few stray snow showers in our current weather pattern. We mix sun and a few snowy moments again Tuesday across Minnesota. But the bigger snow chance arrives next weekend.

Cold eases gradually 

It's tough to warm up much with so much snow on the ground and arctic air in place. But we manage a few more degrees each day this week.

The real change arrives Friday as southerly winds push modified Pacific and Gulf of Mexico influenced air into Minnesota. Highs in the 30s look like the rule starting this weekend and into next week. That's a notable change from where we have been, but not exactly spring just yet.

Weekend snow potential looms

The potential weekend snow system is still on the maps. There's high confidence for a powerful low-pressure storm this weekend. Confidence for precipitation type from the Twin Cities south and east is lower.

Cue the dreaded "rain-snow line."

Most models keep the 32-degree isotherm close to the Twin Cities in the lowest 5,000 feet above the ground. That may mess with precip type.

The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model now suggests all snow for the Twin Cities. Where it stays all snow, it looks like a multi-inch pile this weekend.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model still brings a rainy mix into the Twin Cities Saturday night, then changes to snow by Sunday morning.

Here's NOAA's GFS model from 6 a.m. Saturday to 7 a.m. Sunday. See how the rain-snow line is very close to the Twin Cities?

So this storm appears to be all about where the rain-snow line sets up Saturday night. At least it's a weekend and the commute hassles will be less.

Stay tuned.