Brisk now; 60s again by next weekend? A real spring this year?

That chill in the air this weekend is a reminder March is more winter than spring in Minnesota.

Life at 45 degrees north latitude in the center of a continent is rarely dull. Air masses sweep freely across our region.  The only barrier to bitter air masses from the Arctic Circle 1,200 miles to the north? A barbed wire fence at the Canadian border. And tropical air masses from the Gulf of Mexico 1,000 miles south blow quickly into Minnesota on south winds. Minnesota usually lies in the clash zone. There's no shortage of action on the weather maps here.

Brisk, not bitter

Our weekend air mass won't qualify as bitter by Minnesota standards. But it will keep you reaching for your jacket as you head out the door. We bottom out Saturday a few degrees below average. But highs in the 60s look likely again in southern Minnesota with upper 50s north by next weekend.

Data point: The average high in the Twin Cities hits 50 degrees on Monday, April 1.

No foolin'.

Rain chances next week?

Our (mostly) dry spell hit 15 days Friday with just 0.1 inch of precipitation at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport since March 14. Other than a few passing light rain or snow showers, most of Minnesota remains dry through Tuesday.

There is considerable model spread over the location of a possible weather system next Wednesday. The European and Canadian models keep the bulk of the system down in Iowa and far southern Minnesota. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's GFS brings rain across a good chunk of Minnesota including the Twin Cities Wednesday.

River mosaic

Rivers are still responding differently to different runoff scenarios in their specific watershed basins. The Crow River in Mayer, Minn., is beginning to recede.

The Minnesota River at Montevideo, Minn., appears to be peaking near 21.3 feet. That is the fourth highest flood of record on the Minnesota River at Montevideo.

The Mississippi is still forecast to top out near 20 feet on Sunday, then slowly fall. That would be the eighth highest flood of record for the Mississippi River at St. Paul.

Here's the view of the Mississippi River rising over Harriet Island in St. Paul Monday.

Here's the view today.

Wetter pattern ahead?

The overall upper air pattern looks milder than average the first two weeks of April. More frequent waves in the jet stream look likely to bring rain systems between April 6 and 11.

NOAA's eight-to-14-day temperature and precipitation outlooks favor milder but wetter weather.

A real spring this year?

Overall my read of the weather maps suggests we may actually get a real spring this year. It seems like we have jumped from winter right into summer frequently over the past several years. NOAA's longer-range outlooks favor higher than average temperatures in mid- to late April.

I can't rule out more snow in April. But looking at the maps I don't see a repeat of last year's April 14 blizzard brewing. And the odds of that happening two years in a row are remote. Still, never say never in Minnesota.

A true Minnesota spring? What a concept.

Stay tuned.