Hurricane Dorian to Category 4? Forecast tracks still uncertain

Hurricane Dorian is poised to become a major hurricane. The latest forecast models suggest Dorian is increasingly likely threaten the Florida coast around Labor Day.

Forecast track uncertainty remains high

Dorian has already surprised forecast models as it largely skirted east of Puerto Rico Wednesday. Thursday’s model runs still show a high degree of variability in the forecast path of Dorian.

Hurricane Dorian track forecasts — Hurricane Dorian model track forecasts
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration via Weather Bell

Recent forecast tracks and intensity trends for Hurricane Dorian have produced some potentially ominous outcomes for Florida. Many models including the highly respected the European model still suggest a potentially devastating Florida Landfall early next week.

The latest official track from the National Hurricane Center still favors a major hurricane Florida landfall on Labor Day.

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Hurricane Dorian track forecast
NOAA/National Hurricane Center

European model: Slower and further south

One interesting model trend Thursday is the European model. It’s been consistently on the left side of the guidance envelope. The latest model ensembles favor a slower storm that could make landfall further south on the east coast of Florida. That scenario would potentially bring much higher real estate value north of Miami into play.

European Model (ECMWF) hurricane track forecasts — European model hurricane track forecasts
weathernerds.org

Category 4?

The latest National Hurricane Center intensity forecast for Dorian projects a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds by Sunday. Dorian is a compact storm. It’s travelling over warm, open water and through a favorable low wind shear environment for the next couple of days. That will allow Dorian to intensify.

Hurricane Dorian forecast model intensity forecasts
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Here’s the forecast intensity discussion from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center:

The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. Dorian will be moving through a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. This should allow for at least steady intensification, and Dorian is forecast to become major hurricane on Friday. Dorian is predicted to remain a dangerous hurricane throughout the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is again near the upper end of the guidance in best agreement with the HWRF and FSSE models.

Minnesota: Mostly great Labor Day weekend

Back home our late summer weather winning streak continues. High pressure will generally bring sunny days and clear night through Sunday. Temperatures look pleasant through this weekend.

NOAA temperature forecast for Minneapolis
NOAA via Weather Bell

Chances for showers and thunderstorms favor northern Minnesota on Labor Day, but models are still in flux a bit on timing and location of the inbound system.