Numbers: Severe Minnesota 'winter' so far
The cold season is off to a strong start in the Upper Midwest.
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The winter of 2019-20 is out of the gate and running hard.
The early numbers from the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) show a severe start to winter in the Upper Midwest. The AWSSI quantifies cold and snow into a cumulative measure of overall winter season severity.
The index is not limited to the meteorological or astronomical definition of winter. It includes measurable snowfall or freezing high temperatures that may occur outside of traditional definitions of the winter season.
Twin Cities: 51
The AWSSI so far for the Twin Cities has accumulated 51 points. That’s in the lower range of the “severe” category.
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Rochester has actually logged a higher score of 107 so far this cold season. And International Falls and Grand Forks have posted an early score of 127.
Record November cold wave
Our record early November cold wave is the main driver of the high scores so far this cold season. MPR’s climate contributor Dr. Mark Seeley elaborates.
The first two weeks of November have been near historically cold levels for many states in the Midwest, as well as the eastern half of the country. Thousands of climate stations have reported setting new record cold maximum and minimum daily temperatures. In the Minnesota climate network approximately 150 daily cold daily maximum temperature records have been tied or broken, while 135 cold daily minimum temperature records have been tied or broken, most of these since Nov. 7.
As many as 84 Minnesota climate stations have reported subzero temperature readings this week, with -21 degrees at Isabella (Lake County) on the 12th. Even southern Minnesota communities have seen the thermometer drop below zero with -1 degree reported from Waseca and Grand Meadow, and -2 degrees reported from Caledonia (Houston County). The maximum temperature of 9 degrees at Hibbing on the 11th set a new record cold high temperature value for the date.
On a statewide basis, the average temperature for November over the first two weeks was 22 degrees, ranking as the second coldest first half of the month. Here is a list of the statewide coldest first two weeks of November, showing the top five:
1991 20.2°F
2019 22.0°F
1995 22.8°F
1966 23.5°F
1911 23.8°F
BTW last November (2018) ranked as the seventh coldest first two weeks coming in with a statewide average of 25.8 degrees. So, we have had two years in a row with cold starts to November.
Milder days ahead
Highs in the 40s return to southern and western Minnesota. We’ll be melting more snow than we’ll be making the next few days.
Weekend split
Saturday will be the milder day of the weekend with highs in the 40s across much of Minnesota. But a stiff southerly breeze between 15 and 25 mph will make it feel cooler. Light rain and snow showers arrive around midnight and noon Sunday. Accumulations look light.
