Winter storm warning north; still watching possible system next week

Here we go.

‘Tis the season. Winter storms can spin up rapidly on weather maps in late November. Forecast models grab hold of systems way out in the Pacific, then wrestle with eventual storm tracks.

Temperature profiles in the lowest mile of the atmosphere hover near the freezing mark. The interplay between ice and liquid precipitation makes for some of the most difficult forecasts meteorologists have to make.

Winter storm warning north

We begin with northern Minnesota. Snow breaks out and expands across the north Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday night, a full-blown snow event is in progress up north. Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings cover the map up north.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model paints the scenario of snow up north, with rain changing to snow Thursday morning in the Twin Cities and nearby areas.

Several inches will fall from eastern North Dakota into northeast Minnesota. Snowfall totals could approach a foot locally.

Twin Cities: Mostly rain

Temperatures push well into the mid-40s in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota Wednesday. That means mostly rain. Cold air mixes in early Thursday to change rain to snow. Expect a light snowy coating Thursday morning into the midday hours.

Mild weekend

This looks like a good weekend to get those holiday lights up and running.

Storm next week?

Multiple forecast models still bring a storm system into the Upper Midwest next week. What they can’t resolve yet is the timing and location of the inbound low-pressure system.

What we can credibly say at this point is that a storm system sometime during Thanksgiving week is looking more likely. What we can’t yet credibly pinpoint are precise storm tracks, and thus precipitation type and amounts.

Models are still grabbing hold of the westward extent of the low-pressure track, and thus possible rain and snow zones.

One early example still subject to much change, NOAA’s GFS model paints a possible rain-snow line very near the Twin Cities next Tuesday night.

The European (ECMWF) model’s latest iteration suggests heavy snow Thanksgiving Day.

I’m growing more confident we’ll see significant rain and or snow across Minnesota next week. I’m just not yet sure where and when.

Stay tuned.