Winter warmth: No huge dips in temperature the rest of December

Minnesota and western Wisconsin saw some areas of fog and freezing fog early Saturday morning, and some fog/freezing fog could also develop late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

The big weather story this weekend is the warmth.

Temperature trends

Saturday afternoon highs are expected to reach the 40s in the Twin Cities metro area and roughly the southern third of Minnesota, plus southwestern Wisconsin. A few spots in southwestern Minnesota could touch 50 degrees. Highs in the 30s are expected in the remainder of Minnesota, plus northwestern Wisconsin. The metro area forecast calls for a high in the lower 40s Saturday afternoon, which is well above our average Dec. 21 high of 25 degrees!

Sunday highs in the 40s cover about the southern half of Minnesota and much of western Wisconsin, with 30s in northern Minnesota:

Slightly cooler air moves into northwestern Minnesota on Monday, with mild highs elsewhere:

Some spots in the Twin Cities metro area could top out near 40 on Monday, and metro highs are projected to reach the upper 30s Tuesday and mid 30s on Wednesday.

Milder than normal temps are a good bet as we near the end of the month. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a strong tendency toward warmer than normal temperatures across Minnesota and Wisconsin for Dec. 26 through Dec. 30:

Christmas Day update

A couple of computer models are showing a chance of rain showers and snow showers in Minnesota and western Wisconsin Wednesday and Wednesday night. It may or may not be enough to impact your travel, but check later forecasts.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Snow cover

Here’s the latest snow depth map, courtesy of the Minnesota State Climatology Office and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources:

Note the large area in northeastern Minnesota with 18 to 24 inches of snow on the ground, with some pockets of 24 to 30 inches of snow cover. Elsewhere in northern Minnesota and much of central Minnesota snow depths are generally in the 8- to 18-inch range of snow depth, with the Twin Cities in the 4- to 8-inch range.

Our snow cover will shrink a bit this weekend, so if you’re sledding, snowboarding or cross-country skiing this weekend, Saturday afternoon snow depths will be higher than Sunday afternoon snow depths. The map link also takes you to trail conditions around Minnesota.

Ice safety

If you plan to venture out onto a lake this weekend, here’s a reminder about ice safety.

The ice thickness guidelines from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources indicate that at least 4 inches of clear new ice are needed to support a human:

Here are additional ice-thickness guidelines from the Minnesota DNR:

UNDER 4" - STAY OFF
4" - Ice fishing or other activities on foot
5" - 7" - Snowmobile or ATV
8" - 12" - Car or small pickup
12" - 15" - Medium truck

Many factors other than thickness can cause ice to be unsafe.
White ice or "snow ice" is only about half as strong as new clear ice. Double the above thickness guidelines when traveling on white ice.

The DNR does not measure ice thickness on Minnesota lakes. Your safety is your responsibility. Check ice thickness at least every 150 feet.

Temperature, snow cover, currents, springs and rough fish all affect the relative safety of ice. Ice is seldom the same thickness over a single body of water; it can be 2 feet thick in one place and 1 inch thick a few yards away. Check the ice at least every 150 feet.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.